Dollar-soybeans: the era of the bespoke dollar and more selective imports

Shortly after taking office, Sergio Massa announced that he would get $ 5,000 million from the agro-export sector, what he did not say is that to reach it he would it would improve the price that soybean producers can receive by 38% until the end of September.

Drowned for lack of dollars (in 15 consecutive rounds at the end of August the Central Bank he managed to buy only 316 million dollars) and linked to the commitment not to devalue (in an “imminent” way according to an audio by Deputy Minister Gabriel Rubinstein) the Minister of Economy ushered in the new era of the “bespoke dollar”.

The $ 200 of soybeans, that’s what it is, so producers will be able to liquidate their companies until the end of September (“then everything will be as it is now,” Massa said) as well as arbitrarily change the rules of the game arises because, in the minister’s vision, it will bring $ 5,000 million into Central Bank reserves (last night it was considered probable because the big exporters were in the front row at the conference of ministers) and it will not have repercussions on the pockets of citizens because it is not wheat and corn that determine the “Argentine table”.

soy, once very bad for Kirchnerism It now takes center stage in foreign exchange matters to the point that the minister has said that to lower inflation first you need to get dollars to strengthen the weight.

Massa acknowledged that the “soybean dollar” will mean the Central Bank will have to issue more pesos to buy dollars and provided that the Central will take steps to absorb this increased emission. In other words, he announced that on Thursday the Central could raise the rate again benchmark interest which is currently 69.5% per annum, high but lower than the inflation which continues to gallop.

“Dollar-soybeans” and “tailor-made” imply open the door to possible deployment of the foreign exchange market with one dollar for exports and imports in general (although it would already start with exceptions) and another more expensive and institutional one for tourism expenses and payments for services and debt in dollars?

There were no signs of this, although Rubinstein was considering this possibility before taking up his position in economics, but there were signs that the selective restrictions based on arbitrary criteria would deepen.

Both electronics importers (to which Massa would tell them they should matter “something less”just in a year of the World Cup) such as those of the towels mentioned by the minister at the conference should get their beards soaked, unless they manage to get their import orders through the SIMI (Integral Import Monitoring System) an accelerated process.

The government’s commitment to the International Monetary Fund on reserves set an increase of $ 5.8 billion by the end of the year.

It was clear that even though the energy import payments in August were on the order of $ 1,000 million, less than the middle of Julythe currency supply did not react and the seasonality of the settlements in the field has historically shown that September, October and November are the months with the lowest currency exchanges of the year until the arrival of the “saviors” of wheat, opening the cycle corn and soy.

In the midst of the $ 200 soybean dollar announcement, the Kirchner government’s change over the diagnosis of the causes of inflation.

Contradicting Vice President Cristina Kirchner, who believed that neither the fiscal deficit nor the monetary issue are a cause of inflation, Minister Massa said that one of his goals is reduce the deficit and eliminate emissions.

On these points, orthodoxy seems to have come after the stampede of the July dollar unleashed with the resignation of Martín Guzmán, who served as an economic policy order.

The “custom dollars” start playing their time. Will come “mining dollar”, “dollar car” and so on to do a devaluation in pills and arbitrary within the plan “we are seeing it” What characterizes the different government administrations?

For now, what seems possible is that if more dollars enter the Central Bank and interest rates rise, another financial “summer” could be just around the corner.