The soybean dollar includes the placement of new dollar debt

The government launched the “soybean dollar” on Monday so that exporters can settle the foreign currency at $ 200 in September. The idea is to add $ 5,000 million to reserves, double the amount paid in September last year. The “export increase program” seeks avoid a devaluation with the extra foreign currency income, but it will have how against a greater indebtedness of the Treasury to the Central Bank.

Is that the DNU released this Monday predicts the issuance of 10-year dollar bills by the Ministry of Economy “Up to an amount that covers the difference in equity for the operations of this decree that took place at the Central Bank”. These bonds are the instrument chosen by the government to compensate the monetary authority for the loss that will involve paying the cereal companies of $ 200 for a dollar worth $ 140.20.

According to sources from the economic team, if the agribusiness complex liquidates the $ 5 trillion in soybean and derivative exports that the government expects this month, the plant would lose between $ 55 and $ 60 per dollar, and if the letter was placed at a technical value valued at an average exchange rate of $ 145 in September, the The Treasury has to issue dollar debts of up to $ 2,000 million.

“You will continue to deteriorate the balance of the Central Bank in two ways: it issues $ 200, but will not have a constant dollar income at $ 200, but rather two-thirds ($ 145) and will never collect the non-transferable trafficking, while it will have to sterilize the issue of pesos with higher-yielding liabilities (Leliq). One affects the assets and the other affects the liabilities of the Central“, said Gabriel Caamaño of the Consultora Ledesma.

As of August 31, the BCRA held a stock of non-transferable and other Treasury bills of $ 8,008,095 million, equivalent to $ 57,731 million. If the planned placement materializes, this bond will rise to $ 59,731 million, increasing the Treasury’s liabilities in foreign currency. In July, the stock of total brutal debt, including pesos debt, reached the equivalent of $ 380.76 billion, according to the Ministry of Finance.

“There is a deterioration of the central bank, it is about compensating for the loss of purchase at $ 200 and sale at $ 140 by capitalizing it, but they insert a non-transferable letter from the Treasury,” warned Federico Furiase, director of Anker. And he warned about the effect that the increase in reserves will have: “The replenishment of reserves it will generate a monetary problem which will exert greater upward pressure on tariffs for sterilizing excess pesos. “

The central bank cut the series of 16 rounds of buying yesterday and sold $ 9 million on the foreign exchange market on Monday. The first of the soybean dollar caused a boom in sales with the definition of soybean contracts for 1 million tons, equal to 362 million dollars, one of the highest records of the year in a single day. But it will only impact bookings between 48 and 72 hours later.