Entrepreneurs anticipate the scenario: high inflation, some dollar adjustments and stable employment

In Argentina, economic cyclones seem inevitable for businessmen to appear mistrust of the futureagree that the institutional stability is essentialthat inflation will remain very high and stress that mistrust is one of the main obstacles.

It is alarming that only 13% talk about increasing their investments while 51% confess that they will go to the bottom. that intention not fully reflected of work as 47% plan to keep their schools, although only 19% will increase it, while 34% will decrease it.

This is how the results of the survey carried out by IDEA through the consultancy firm D’Alessio IROL among 245 executive partners of the body emerge. The most striking thing is that the survey was carried out between 5 and 17 August, when Sergio Massa had already hired him as super-minister, even if the measures were not yet known. Another fact: the the valuation of the company is better than that of the country. And moving forward, expectations about the future of the economy do not improve.

In this true corporate wrist inventory, the 88% assure that in the first half of the year things got worse or moderately worse. A paltry 5% fared much better. For the rest of the year, pessimism drops to 70% and optimists grow to 13%. Highlight the post-pandemic reactivation with higher consumption, but highlight the acceleration of inflation, the lack of an economic plan, the scarcity of dollars, the high emission, the increase in public spending and the tax burden.

When asked about exports, just 20% indicate that they will increase in the meantime 52% believe they will stay the same and 28% think they will decrease. In this sense, 63% admit that their profit margin will decrease. Sales and exports denote general retraction.

Entrepreneurs anticipate scenarios, so it’s important to look at their projections on key variables. There is a coincidence in the upward trend of the main macroeconomic variables and a particular focus on increase in inflation: 52% think the the dollar will rise significantly and 43% that the increase will be moderate. As for inflation, there is no doubt: 70% say it will increase significantly.

When asked what needs to be done to invest, the majority answer is institutional stability less taxes, revision of the labor framework, fiscal incentives and long-term financing. In this sense, the reduction of the fiscal deficit, tax changes, legal certainty and the liberalization of the foreign exchange market are considered to be measures to be taken as soon as possible.

Within companies, salaries and talent retention emerge as key challenges. 70% of companies claim they have uncovered costs because They don’t find the right profiles.

A fact: the war in Ukraine that has improved the price of raw materials reads as a negative impact. Furthermore, a third of the companies have been affected by the war between Ukraine and Russia, 70% of them negatively.

Looking at the results of the investigation, Daniel González, the managing director of the institution, clarified that although the investigation was conducted when Massa was already in office, the measures were not yet known. And reinforced: “The entrepreneur is always looking for an excuse to find the positive. It is possible that there is a more optimistic expectation.”

Economist Mariana Camino blurred the results by highlighting a paradox: “Faced with a disintegrated economy, there was a boost in consumption that accompanied the first half and therefore the companies say the country is doing badly, but for me it has gone well “. The economist wonders what will happen in view of the fear of a brake on activity.