repeated figurine. The creation of the soybean dollar together with a new way of dealing with the relationship with the market has reassured the value of the currency.
Of
Gustavo Neffa
Economist. Twitter: @gneffa
The implicit financial dollars that operate in the stock market are the thermometer in recent months of the confidence placed in Sergio Massa’s immediate plans in his role as the new Minister of Economy. He has a very difficult mission to perform: to obtain the dollars necessary to inflate the international reserves of the Central Bank on the one hand and to slow down the rate of price growth in the economy on the other. At this point, the containment of public spending and the figure of Gabriel Rubinstein as deputy minister are fundamental after months of overflow and monetization of the fiscal deficit. The signals are correct in the framework of extreme weakness.
I estimate that implied dollars will remain calm in September due to the The liquidation of foreign exchange from the “soybean dollar” at 200 pesos has been announced, a window with a benefit that will only be in effect for a month and that has already generated complaints from other sectors to receive the same treatment. Furthermore, the measure has generated a lot of criticism as it buys dollars at 200 pesos and sells them to importers at 140, generating a new quasi-fiscal deficit of the Central Bank with which it will have to deal with greater monetary issuance and / or placement of Leliq and subscriptions. The interest account was catapulted by more than 400,000 million monthly in the last rate hike alone, at the rate of an annual effective interest rate of 96.5% (if renewed every 28 days) that has not stopped rising throughout the year. year (and strong in recent months) to prevent a dollar resurgence.
There are good expectations around multilateral dollars (3,000 million dollars from the IDB and 900 million from the World Bank) and the energy companies that Massa can bring as a promise on his trip to the United States, but they have to materialize. and in the middle the fear of giving in more so that the dollar sale is genuine (and not forced or by favoring a sector), especially since the fourth quarter is the one with the least seasonality of currency settlement of the year and at the end of the year the majority of the fiscal deficit is concentrated.
The blue dollar falls and Argentine bonds and stocks rise on Wall Street
As for inflation, it would have dropped from 7.4% in July to 7% in August and perhaps we will see 6% in September. but still it is very high and even more so with this relative stability of the exchange rate.
In terms of investments we like companies that had been demoted for being strictly national or with a high component of the state in their balance sheetslike banks and public utility services, as well as oil and gas. Specific alternatives we have recently recommended to clients: Banco Macro (BMA), TGS (TGSU2) and Transener (TRAN), as well as those we have been doing for a long time: Mirgor (MIRG), Molinos Agropecuaria (MOLA), Ternium Argentina (TXAR) ), Aluar (ALUA), Pampa Energía (PAMP) and Cedears de Vista Oil (VIST) and Tenaris (TS). Globant (GLNT) and MercadoLibre (MELI) Cedears will only see their prices rise if Wall Street leaves behind its fears about inflation and interest rates, things that don’t seem possible before 2023.
The back room of Sergio Massa’s mission: he will ask the IMF for clemency
In fixed income, the preference today goes through the letters that fit the longest CER (until June 2023) and bonuses until the elections. Good Treasury auctions support it. Although fears of a longer bond recast do not appear to have dissipated given a spread of 11 percentage points between TX24 and TX23 (normality shouldn’t be more than one). But I also do not rule out a continuation of the recovery in the short term: in short, investments in domestic assets have become fashionable.
The plant extends stocks to pay for imports until the end of the year
The “carry” of interest will continue for a while but we do not see further declines in the CCL implicit exchange rate, although we do see a greater reduction in the exchange gap in the 85/90% zone due to the devaluation of the official rate The dollar wholesale continues to accelerate (4.8% in July, 5.3% in August and perhaps 7% in September). In order not to let so much time pass that the structural imbalances are very large and to gradually disarm and dollarize starting from October.
After the soybean dollar, the Central Bank has made it more expensive to credit producers
Source: Clarin
