Consumption is slowing down due to a lack of dollars and rising inflation

Consumption showed its best side in the first half of the year. Statistics show that most items, especially durable goods, rebounded and rose above pre-pandemic levels. The projections for the second half are differentmainly due to the lack of dollars, the increase in credit and the increase in prices, connoisseurs agree.

There are several clues to this. According to CAME (the retail chamber of commerce), sales were booming until June, but in July they drop by 3.5% and in August by 2.1%. These figures contrast with the strong increases in January (9.8%) and February (9%). “Revenue dynamics were key during the first half”, Plays Claudio Caprarulo, of the Analytica consultancy.

Despite the escalation of inflation, “the formal salary grew by 2.4% and was protected quite well,” says Santiago Romero Manoukian, of Ecolatina. On the other hand, inflation has encouraged consumption due to the lack of savings and investment alternatives (dollar stocks and negative rates), which led to the purchase of cars, appliances and motorcyclesamong others.

In the first 8 months of 2022, the items that lost the most according to CAME were clothing (sales decreased by 15.9%), footwear (5.1%) and bazaars, furniture and decoration items (2.2%). ). In the same period, the food and beverage sector grew by 2.8%. This is the big picture, because the latest indicators prove it the trend began to reverse.

“Up to June, sales grew by 15%. But in July they contracted 5%due to a certain scarcity of goods, the increase in prices and quotas ”, they confided Clarione from a chain of appliances. Cars and motorbikes replicate the same curve. According to the dealers grouped in ACARA, motorcycle patents increased by 22% between January and August. But last month “ended with a drop of 9.4% compared to the same month last year”.

The level of operations depends on an equation that is increasingly complex and that depends on 3 pillars: lack of products or varieties (due to the strengthening of the import trap), deterioration of family income (due to rising inflation) e lack of funds (more expensive due to the increase in tariffs). “Whoever has no dollars saved and spending in pesos is very complicated,” says Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina, chief economist at Equilibra.

Until the first semester, wages and prices were the same, but the prospects for the second half of the year are not favorable to the pocket. In the month of July, the cost of living was 7.4% and they estimate that the increase in the income of formalized workers has doubled: 3.5%. “That trend is now stopped. And employment is stagnating because there are fewer dollars and activity slows down, “says Eco Go economist Sebastián Menescaldi.

Consumption is central to the economy as a whole. It is estimated to represent 70% of GDP. “Interest rates are higher and banks are reluctant to grant credit. All of this affects consumption, ”she adds. Inflation also rises and private advisors estimate a threshold of 90% for the whole yearfor “exchange pressures and lower supply of goods”, completes Romero Manoukian.

The context is unfavorable for almost all sectors, one example being tourism. Cabotage has recovered 80% of the levels recorded in the pre-pandemic. But overseas travel continues to drop by 40%.. “Purchases in supermarkets have increased, but are still below the 2020 level. The same is happening with the consumption of household appliances, which today are higher than 2019, but far from the peaks of 2017 and 2018”, recalls Caprarulo.

The pace of mass consumption (food, drink, toiletries, and cleaning) varies by channel. In large stores (where regulated pricing programs focus) they sell more than local stores, supermarkets and businesses. According to consulting firm Nielsen, Care Price products represent “36% of the total volume”. In the first half of the year, consumption grew by 4.5%, but a similar decline is estimated for the second half of the year.

Romero Manoukian points out that it is very likely that consumption will slow down “because we see no room for a decline in real wages even in the registered sector. If this happens, coupled with the Central Bank’s rate hike, the only way to support consumption is using savings or liquidating hoarded assets“. For analysts, with a lighter pocket and more expensive credit, the more viable option is to get the dollars off the mattress.

Durable goods face difficulties in placing supplies, spare parts and production equipment. The government has once again strengthened stocks on imports and dollars in reserves, which complicates the supply. On Thursday, the Central Bank extended “the obligation to finance imports for 180 days” until the end of the year, which expired at the end of the month.

It is not the only thing. The government has also limited the entry of finished cars and warned electronics manufacturers that they must “substantially” reduce imports in the last four months of the year.