The financial summer that came from the hand of the soybean dollar and the decision to devalue like

The result is in the economics textbooks: devaluing to overcome a situation of exchange arrears, dollars appear.

the minister Serge Massawith the endorsement of the vice president Cristina Kirchnerit launched the $ 200 for producers to liquidate the withheld soybeans and the central bank was able to increase foreign exchange reserves as it had not done for two months.

The combination of a soybean dollar 40% more that the official wholesaler and the extension until the end of the year of stocks to pay for imports (it requires companies to finance purchases abroad for six months) consolidate a stranglehold that projects a new transitory scenario in terms of foreign exchange.

The dollar buying center ($ 860 million in three rounds) has also spawned a kind of monetary martingale, since it had to print another $ 200 billion in three days to acquire them and, for fear that those pesos will have an impact on inflation or the dollar, he rushed to sterilize them placing more liquidity in banks.

The last maturity of the Leliqs was $ 450,000 million (the numbers are sidereal) and the Central absorbed 850 billion dollars. The amount of pesos in banks, businesses and the BCRA is huge.

That surplus of pesos, of which the majority take refuge in Treasury bills (indexed by inflation, dollar or “double”) or in central bank bonds, is rapidly fattening up a public debt and with the expectation, moreover, from a possible increase in the reference rate (the current annual rate of 69.5%) next week, once inflation is released in August, Wednesday, which, according to the versions, was between 6.5% and 7%.

It was also based on the expectation that Sergio Massa’s US tour. it could improve the image of the Kirchner government.

One piece of information that came out of the minister’s conversations in Washington is that the government is thinking of another exchange of debts exceed the November-December maturities by offering dual bonds (the one that yields the most between inflation and devaluation) at the real annual rate of 3% maturing in 2024, or after the presidential election.

It is clear that the Government seeks to reassure the short term in dollar terms and, at the same time, to clear the horizon of pesos debt, while a monthly inflation with floor at 6% liquidates public spending and expects a decline in activity in this second part of the year.

Since the beginning of the soybean dollar ($ 200 per dollar instead of $ 141) a key question is what will happen after the deadline of 30 September.

Will the government choose the “Malbec dollar”, the “mining dollar” or the “tech dollar” in an attempt to continue providing foreign currency to the Central Bank’s reserves?

Will you opt for an exchange jump? (Few believe in this possibility due to the inflationary flash it could cause) Will the rate of increase of the official dollar accelerate to ratify before the IMF that does not want to delay the exchange rate?

Questions with difficult assertive answers coexist at this moment with the possibility (still under study and not defined) to do the tourist dollar in an effort to further control the outflow of foreign exchange in two months of few export deals such as October and November seasonally and, even more so, after the government devalued soybeans by advancing the deals.

With the decision to buy “expensive” dollars ($ 200) and sell them “cheap” to pay for imports, the government makes transience of the scheme and even more for the fact that the difference is made by the Central Bank with the monetary issue when very high inflation has been, for a long time, the main cause of concern of the population.

A little more than a week after the aggression against Vice President Cristina Kirchner, the government, later “tailored devaluation”, lives a financial summer after 60 days of stress.