Sergio Massa and the program with the IMF: “We must work to achieve the objectives”

Sergio Massa is returning from a busy week in Washington and Houston, where he premiered his case as an overseas economy minister. Away from the Presidency of Deputies, a place where he already felt very comfortable, he exercised his pulse for the “wire” politician and even amused, he seems more cautious in his new position, where he has been for just over a month. It is for him an “unknown ground” where he tries to be “Precise and surgical”, according to what they say in their environment, to try to put order in the chaos of the Argentine economy.

You know what He has little time and urgencies are pressing. He sleeps little and moves in dizziness. His collaborators say that he usually calls at any time, any day, to ask for details, a figure and that he wants it “for yesterday”. The minister, in general, sleeps well today he usually gets up at dawn when a problem is running through his head.

He rests little, moves in dizziness and trusts his collaborators who assist him in specific matters. The oil businessmen he was with in Houston pointed out earlier Clarione, for example, that Massa handled the details with solvency (Energy Secretary Flavia Royon and YPF President Pablo González were at his side in those areas) and that, despite his short tenure, he addressed the issue accurately and therefore, he anticipated his claims and presented plans.

Massa is traveling these days between the IMF, the White House and meetings with officials and businessmen. This weekend he is certainly no longer relaxed, with meetings with his technical team who for days have been refining the latest revision of the program with the IMF and a group of Argentines studying in this capital.

To wrap up his visit, Monday still has three key facts to draw: that the document is closed without problems with the agency; a meeting with David Lipton at the Treasury and another with the CEO of the Fund, Kristalina Georgieva.

“The program has objectives and we must work to achieve them because it is part of the commitments that Argentina has made as a country”, Massa said Clarione and other media in Washington on the IMF deal.

The minister has repeated this in all the meetings he has held in recent days will meet the program goals, which includes an adjustment to 2.5% of GDP this year and an accumulation of at least US $ 5.8 billionIt’s December.

In Economics they think that the goal of accumulating reserves should not be the product of the goal with the Fund: it must be part of the government’s policy, a kind of north also to accumulate political power. “Governments win elections with reserves in Central and pesos well distributed on the street”they point out

The struggle with inflation

With Massa in Houston, the inflation forecast was revealed, which at the end of the year estimates almost 100%, which would be far higher than the Fund’s forecast. Close to the minister they know that it will not be easy to lower it. understand that “The economy, beyond this month of stabilization, is still fragile” and that if they do not have an “aggressive policy” of consolidation of reserves and public financing, they will not be able to definitively tackle the fight against inflation. They go slow. They would see it as “a hit” if prices fell 1.8% or 2% per month by the end of next year.

Massa said that these days there is in Washington “the technical work of all sectors of the Ministry of Economy with the technical areas of the Fund to close the second quarter review and to build the prospective document, which is somewhat how the Fund sees it “. and how we see the problem going forward. I think the week was good in this sense “She said.

The minister specified that so far his visit to the United States has served “to begin talk a little about the economic stabilization program, to unlock some issues that Argentina was blocked and to tell, in some way, how we think of Argentina’s economic development in a very particular global context ”.

In Economics, they believe that the review of the last quarter with the Fund is going in the right direction, and this Massa will not need, at least for now, to appeal to the influence of the US government in the body to move forward on that matter. He prefers to reserve the political ace for when something crashes.

During his visit to the White House, where he met with President Joe Biden’s top advisers, he said: “I didn’t go to ask for anything, nor did they offer me anything. What was there was an agenda of meetings that had the themes of energy security and food security, which are part of the agreement of the Summit of the Americas and the G7 agreement “.

He added that “in this context, discussions have arisen about what the best scenario is, understanding that the war in Ukraine generates an impact on the global economy” that cannot be ignored.

in economics they estimate that the conflict in Europe has cost Argentina about 20,000 million dollars from the paralysis of a Swap with China, a rumor that would derive from the transfer of the Special Drawing Rights (the currency of the IMF) from Russia and, above all, from the increase in imports and fuel prices.

These days it has been in the United States, Massa controlled minute by minute soybean liquidations and stock increases. This has put him in a good mood and he also understands that it has positioned him better in negotiations with the Fund. He confirmed that this opportunity will expire on October 1st. “The incentive program has a beginning and an end”, he said and pointed out that the grain companies have a minimum liquidation commitment of $ 5 trillion.

Massa observes the operation with satisfaction because it increases the reserves and this adds confidence to the Fund and to the level of leadership. Beyond the numbers, they say in Economics, “What reassures the Fund is that they see political power.” In fact, in the environment of the Tigrese they affirm it “Nobody in front of everyone has even a little support”. They believe that whatever good or bad the minister does will be their only responsibility.

Four strategic pillars

Minister Sergio Massa repeats like a mantra that Argentine development must be based on four pillars: energy, proteins, “rare earths” and the knowledge industry. This is why he met with companies from those sectors during the week in the United States.

He spoke on the subjectEnergy security ” with several Biden officials and spent a full day in Houston getting investments in the industry, which also includes the highly prized lithium.

In the heart of American oil he offered to reactivate a plan of Cristina Kirchner’s government that had been frozen and this has allowed the oil companies a greater availability of foreign currency based on their production. In principle, Chevron, which was a pioneer in investing at Vaca Muerta, would benefit, but more could be added.

“Argentina will overcome the eternal vicious circle of restrictions on the dollar issue when we have a sufficiently large product construction so that its exports are a guarantee of the free functioning of the foreign exchange markets,” Massa said.

In the environment of the minister they say without hesitation: «The goal is to increase the level of production. The more you produce, the more you take away “.