Central Bank reserves increase.
The soybean dollar changed face this month to the reserves of the Central Bank, those that determine what the real firepower of the monetary authority is to control the official exchange rate.
Net reserves in August it was about $ 1,000 million. Now, private calculations indicate that the Central would end September with a stake of approximately $ 4 billion, based on purchases made since the soybean dollar went into effect on September 5th. This gives more room for maneuver to avoid a sudden devaluation, a possibility that until a fortnight ago was part of the scenarios managed by private consultants.
Up until yesterday, soybean dollar payments reached $ 2,200 million and are expected to comfortably reach the goal of ending the month with a contribution of 5 billion dollars. At least half of this figure would strengthen the coffers of the Central. The rest goes to supplying dollars to importers.
From Aurum Valores they note that “the accumulation of foreign currency for the soybean dollar allowed a re-composition of the Net International Reserves for approximately US $ 1,081 million (estimate with incomplete data for the last 2 working days) and $ 1,074 million gross “.
For the consulting firm FMyA, with the soybean dollar “would increase net reserves for September by $ 2,500 million”.
The consultant adds that “the government hopes to add $ 2.5 billion per soybean dollar and another $ 500 million from the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB). net reserves would reach $ 4.4 billion. “
The good news is that reserves are strengthening; the bad news is that this is not enough to reach the goal set with the Monetary Fund.
From Adcap Grupo Financiero, they point out that with the purchases planned until 30 September, “net reserves could reach $ 3.5 billion, a far cry from the IMF’s $ 6.4 billion target“.
However, they add that once the quarterly review is over, “the IMF would be able to approve the disbursement of the $ 4 billion by the end of Septemberwhich would be indispensable to cover the deadlines with the multilateral organization of September and October, which amount to $ 5.5 billion“.
what will happen in October
So far, the government insists that the soybean dollar expires on September 30th. “The market is starting to wonder what will happen on 1 October, when the special regime for soybean exporters will be over. We have to start thinking about whether it will arrive. some other kind of invention to attract dollars “, specify in the Adcap.
According to market speculation, the government could take steps to reduce the tourism dollar deficit. Only in July, the Central Bank sold 750 million dollars for Argentines who spend abroad and this figure is expected to increase at the gates of the World Cup in Qatar, which begins in November.
“The measures could include an increase in the surcharge on card purchases abroad (45% to 52%) or a new currency regime for such purchases. we believe that it would make all the sense in the world to raise the tourism dollarsince it is something that does not affect inflation or the Argentine table “, they quote from Adcap.
AQ
Annabella Quiroga
Source: Clarin
