It is the driest winter in 27 years: there are already losses in the wheat harvest and the sowing of corn is postponed

The countryside is suffering the effects of La Niña for the third consecutive year and are already causing loss of grain production and postponing the sowing of corn to December. Furthermore, there are several regional economies affected.

In the main production region of the country, producers experience the driest winter in the last 27 years. As described in a report from the Rosario Exchange, this area is 80% drought, 15% scarce and 5% regular on the maps of soil water reserves.

In this situation, there are 700,000 hectares of good to bad grain due to drought, to which the frosts have been added in recent days that have aggravated the dramatic situation that is already being experienced due to the lack of rainfall. Thus, of the 6.6 million hectares of wheat planned for this winter, only 6.1 million hectares could be sown and the estimated agricultural production has fallen by 10%, from 20.5 million tons to 18.5 million. , 2 million less.

Therefore, foreign exchange earnings from grain exports will also decrease from what was expected a month ago. They are expected to come in at US $ 4.460 million, is $ 100 million less than a month ago. But that’s 1.3 billion dollars more than what it received last cycle due to the impact of the war between Russia and Ukraine that has raised the international values ​​of the cereal.

In the center of the country, in winter it usually rains about 30 millimeters (mm) in the west and between 60 and 90 mm in the east. But taking the average of the region’s 36 stations, the average is only 21mm. In the south of Santa Fe, on the edge of Buenos Aires, the records are less than 5 mm. “You have to go back to 1995 to find such a dry neighborhood with such scarce water reserves in the ground for the start of the coarse grain campaign,” said analyst Alfredo Elorriaga.

To this dry quarter, that is added It is the third consecutive year with rainfall below the historical average. The last time was in the years 1973-1976 and 1998-2001.

Serge Grosso He is a consultant and producer in the city of Salto, Buenos Aires, one of the cities with the greatest production potential in Argentina, and has released frightening information for that area. “It’s one of the worst droughts in 100 years. There hasn’t been a rainless winter since 1929,” he said.

As he described, the last rain in the area was May 25, but he recalled that that thunderstorm left only about 20mm on the ground.

“This year the lack of rain is having a bigger impact because the tassel dropped steeply in recent years due to the constant drought that the area is suffering from, “he said.

And the forecasts for the future are not encouraging for the entire production region because they are there 80% chance that La Niña will continue in the next 3 monthsyes However, the odds would drop to less than 50% in early 2023. “For the quarter September, October and November the rainfall will be lower than normal in most of the national territory, except for the west of the Pampea region, where they should be normal, NOA and the south of Patagonia, where the probabilities are the same for all categories, “said María Elena Fernández Long, professor of agrarian climatology and phenology at the UBA’s Faculty of Agriculture (Fauba).

This made the producers postpone the sowing of maize from the first to the September – date in which the maximum production potential is expected – for November / December. “I am the son of producers and have been working since 1991 and I can tellIt is the first time that corn is not planted first“, Grosso launched by analyzing what happens in his area of ​​influence.

According to the Rosary Exchange, a reduction in the area of ​​maize is already foreseen to replace the soybean zone because it is a crop that requires less investment and is more resistant to lack of water.

Regional economies are also suffering from drought

Not only the central area suffers from water scarcity. One of the activities already badly affected is the production of yerba mate. The leader Orlando Stvass, treasurer of Coninagro and president of the Federation of Cooperatives of Corrientes, analyzed the situation and commented: “We suffered the effect of the strongest drought in the summer until February, only at the end of that month it began. rain and we had a good regime from February to today. But with the previous drought, the loss was very important in the north-east of Corrientes and in the south of Misiones. Today we are about to finish the harvest and we have a loss from 25 to 30 percent of the total yerba mate production. “

Then the Cologne Liebig cooperative explained that new plantations were lost due to the drought and had to be replaced at very high costs. “There has also been a death of plants which has led to a decrease in production in our area. In Misiones there was more rain and perhaps they could have recovered better. In winter we had a more regular regimen and this gave us some fresh air, but we have to wait 4 or 5 years for the cycles to go back into production, as long as spring and summer come well without the effect again. girl ”Stvass concluded.

A few thousand kilometers further south, in Patagonia, the effects of drought can also be seen. To bring the scenario back to the south of the country is Sergio Riskin, president of the Primitiva Cooperative. “The north of Patagonia suffered from a severe drought, which this year was slightly alleviated by the snowfall recorded in the mountains, but the rains are still insufficient. The low flows of the rivers will increase a little, irrigation in the fruit areas for the season that is starting is assured, but the low level recorded by the lakes of the hydroelectric dam will take years to recover, “the pear and apple producer said.

Another activity affected is livestock, as producers face higher feed costs due to the lack of grazing. In this scenario, the Argentine Feedlot Chamber recorded an occupancy level of 69% in August, higher than the last two years.