The drama in a town in the main agricultural region that hasn’t rained for almost 4 months

“It’s one of the worst droughts in nearly 100 years. Not a winter without rain has gone by since 1929.” Who describes this dramatic situation is Serge Grossoconsultant and producer from Salto, one of the cities with the greatest production potential in Argentina.

As reported, the last rain in the area was May 25, but he said the storm left only about 20mm on the ground. So, after having exceeded 6,000 kilos of wheat for several years, he now ensures that if it doesn’t rain in September, there will be games that will be totally lost.

This production reality is replicated in a large part of the main production area of ​​the country. And this year the situation gets worse because it is the third consecutive year under the La Niña e phenomenon it is already causing production losses in wheat and postponing the sowing of corn to December

As described in a report from the Rosario Exchange, this area is 80% drought, 15% scarce and 5% regular on the maps of soil water reserves.

In this situation, there are 700,000 hectares of good to bad grain due to drought at the countryside level, to which the frosts have been added in recent days that have aggravated the dramatic situation that is already being experienced due to the lack of rainfall. Thus, of the 6.6 million hectares of wheat planned for this winter, only 6.1 million hectares could be sown and the estimated agricultural production has fallen by 10%, from 20.5 million tons to 18.5 million. , 2 million less.

Therefore, foreign exchange earnings from grain exports will also decrease from what was expected a month ago. They are expected to come in at US $ 4.460 million, is $ 100 million less than a month ago. But that’s 1.3 billion dollars more than what it received last cycle due to the impact of the war between Russia and Ukraine that has raised the international values ​​of the cereal.

To this dry quarter, we add that It is the third consecutive year with rainfall below the historical average. The last time was in the years 1973-1976 and 1998-2001.

In the center of the country, in winter it usually rains about 30 millimeters (mm) in the west and between 60 and 90 mm in the east. But taking the average of the region’s 36 stations, the average is only 21mm. In the south of Santa Fe, on the edge of Buenos Aires, the records are less than 5 mm. “You have to go back to 1995 to find such a dry neighborhood with such scarce water reserves in the ground for the start of the coarse grain campaign,” said analyst Alfredo Elorriaga, focusing on the entire central region.

And the forecasts for the future are not encouraging for the entire production region because they are there 80% chance that La Niña will continue in the next 3 monthsyes However, the odds would drop to less than 50% by early 2023.

“For the fourth September, October and November the rainfall will be lower than normal in most of the national territory, except for the west of the Pampea region, where they should be normal, NOA and the south of Patagonia, where the probabilities are the same for all categories, “said María Elena Fernández Long, professor of agrarian climatology and phenology at the UBA’s Faculty of Agriculture (Fauba).

This made the producers postpone the sowing of maize from the first to September – date in which the maximum production potential is expected – for November / December. “I am the son of producers and have been working since 1991 and I can tellIt is the first time that corn is not planted first“, Grosso launched by analyzing what happens in his area of ​​influence.

According to the Rosary Exchange, a reduction in the area of ​​maize is already foreseen to replace the soybean zone because it is a crop that requires less investment and is more resistant to lack of water.