Sergio Massa in Washington
The Government will make the road map for next year official in the next few hours with the presentation of the new budget to Congress. Sergio Massa was perfecting the details on Tuesday afternoon with Cristina Kirchner in the office of the vice president and, subsequently, continued in his office on the fifth floor, accompanied by the chief of staff, Leonardo Madcur, the secretary of the Treasury, Raúl Rigo, and the deputy minister of the economy, Gabriel Rubinstein.
After the US tour, the bill is pivotal in ongoing negotiations with the IMF authorize an outlay of $ 3.9 billion, which could only be released in two weeks. There the Ministry of Economy will ratify the continuity of the agreement signed in March, within which a primary deficit of 1.9%, a monetary issue of 0.6%, growth of 3% and the accumulation of net reserves of $ 4 trillion in 2023.
The Law on Financial Administration establishes that the budget must be sent to Congress by 15 September, accompanied by the objectives to be achieved and the methodology for estimating resources and expenses. Rigo was working tightly on the numbers and measures to avoid “deviations”, as happened with last year’s budget, which predicted an inflation of 33% and was rejected by the Deputies.
According to sources from the economic team, the idea is that this time the variables they are aligned with inflation which could be around 60%. That ambitious inflation expectation, well below the 95% forecast by consultants for 2022 and 85% for 2023. They believe it is compatible with a “more conservative” growth target and a 0.6% reduction in the GDP of the reds in public accounts, which will result in a fiscal adjustment of $ 480 trillion in 2023.
At first it was thought that it would be achieved with a 0.5% cut in energy subsidies and the ongoing tariff increase, but now it is not so clear. For example, according to sources from the Secretariat for Energy, the consumption ceilings for the average sectors announced at the beginning of August will be formalized in the next few hours. The limit will be 400 kW of electricity in general and 550 kW for the NEA, despite the governors asking for 750 kW in the summer.
On the side of the collection, the government will not have the “soybean dollar” effect that would raise $ 200,000 million, nor the advance on income tax to 1,900 companies with which they hope to add $ 250,000 million by October. The idea is to move forward with the “structural” reforms agreed with the agency, including the real estate revaluation announced by Silvina Batakis and in which Massa has moved forward, as confirmed by those around him.
Another important point is how the government will be financed. With near-zero monetary issuance, it will have to resort to greater indebtedness on the peso market. By 2023, EcoGo estimate maturities of $ 11 billion, more than half in inflation-adjusted bonds (CERs), albeit with inflation of 100%. Externally, there will be interest payments with agencies and bondholders of approximately $ 4.9 billion.
If the bet is that the exchange rate also adjusts to prices, the estimated official dollar could be $ 270 at the end of December 2023. In turn, the Central Bank will have to accumulate $ 4 billion of net reserves on the $ 5.8 billion. expected in 2022. In economics, they believe the soybean dollar will add no less than US $ 3,000 million this year and the organisms US $ 2,000 million, which added to the accumulated stock would allow to reach the objective.
The government is also looking into new measures to reduce foreign exchange outflows. The head of the BCRA, Miguel Pesce, met with his customs counterpart, Guillermo Michel, in Economics to evaluate patterns of behavior on imports. He also works on tourism abroad. That rumor represented $ 4,000 million in the first seven months.
Giovanni Manuel Barca
Source: Clarin
