The war in Ukraine comes close to a definition

The Ukrainian war, in its seventh month of fighting, has entered the decisive phasewhere victory or defeat is at stake.

Russia has gathered its forces in anticipation of the announced Ukrainian counter-offensive; and moved them from Kharkov – the second Ukrainian city after Kiev, the capital – to the Donbass region in the south-east of the country, where over 80% of the population speaks Russian.

Also strengthened with more than 60 combat unitsThe points of the Donbass where the kyiv offensive is planned are equipped with all weapon systems.

For more than two months Russia has adopted a defensive strategyassuming that the forces it must face in this powerful counter-offensive are mainly those of the United States and NATO, and only secondarily, and in operational terms, the Ukrainians.

Not only the Pentagon It completely “enlightens” the Russian army through its extraordinary satellite intelligence system, but rather sets targets and conducts artillery.a, in particular the “Himar” missile launchers with a range of 300/500 kilometers, and which are the expression of the latest technological generation of the most powerful war machine in the world.

Putin’s strategy has a second component: It consists in avoiding identifying the United States as their real enemy, because this would lead them to directly attack the US forces and intensify the conflict, leading to a direct military confrontation between the two nuclear superpowers.

This gives the situation a particular “fog” on its true strategic characteristics. But in this “gray” commitment there is a total coincidence between Moscow and Washington, both interested in keeping the conflict in its condition of “hybrid war”, characteristic of the time.

But in Europe, Putin has ruled out the euphemisms, and announced the complete and definitive cut of the supply of Russian gas to the European continentwith the addition that in a kind of supreme challenge he indicated that this closure will be maintained until the “Western Complex” – that is, the United States included – removes all its sanctions on the Russian Federation.

This announcement was made in early winter in Europe; and the German economy – the first in the Continent and the third in the world – is plunged into a deep recession, the gravity of which is indicated by the fact that over 15% of the “Mittelstadt”, the small and medium-sized manufacturing companies that are the competitive heart of German industry, they were forced to close their businesses due to the enormous cost of energy (the price of gas has increased by 700% in the last 12 months).

The Russian gas cut-off poses a double threat to Europe: it plunges the continent into a recession with significant job losses. And it is a situation that could be permanent, because Russia is redirecting its energy production towards Asia; Y between India and China they already buy more than 30 European countries combined.

Russian sales in Asia are done with a 30% discount on world market prices (This is what Ural is worth, which is the Russian index as opposed to Brent).

Russia’s turn towards Asia, with its axis in China, deepens the creation of a new center of power in the world; and so accelerates the multipolarization of the system, which is clearly the central current of time.

India and the People’s Republic bought 11 million barrels per day more from Russia in the second quarter of the year than in the same period of the previous year, for more than $ 9.5 billion.

Among European countries, the most critical situation is that of Great Britain: the price of natural gas has increased sevenfold in the last year, and more than a third of users have stopped paying their energy bills given the impossibility of meeting its financial cost.

This happens when the Bank of England (BoE) estimates that inflation will exceed 20% by the end of the year, with an economy in recession in 2023 and 2024.

Furthermore, the challenge facing the new Prime Minister Liz Truss, after Brexit, is not only Scottish independence, but also the clear possibility that Ulster (Northern Ireland) will be unified (integrated) with the Republic of Irelandmember of the European Union.

It should be noted that the strictly military aspect of the war is not essential, but what is decisive is the strictly political.

And in this “hybrid” global war of a new kind, politics is decided in the United States, not in Europe or Russia; and there it happens that President Joe Biden, one of the weakest leaders in North American history, will have to face a real referendum on his administration on the next first Tuesday of November this year, in the mid-term elections, where he could suffer, together with the Democrats , a probable crushing defeat; and this would happen in a deeply fractured and polarized country, as it has never been since the civil war of 1861/1865.

In this “hybrid” and global war, fate is decided in the United States, without Russia, Ukraine or Europe being more than secondary players in this global game.