The barrage of pesos for the soy dollar puts pressure on the financier: they fear the blues will wake up

Despite the good performance of the transaction for the soybean dollar, which allowed the Central Bank strengthen its reserves of $ 2.1 trillion so far this month, last week the financial dollar consolidated its rally and closed again in Levels of $ 300, a sign that hasn’t been seen since the beginning of August.

The rate hike faced last Thursday, which brings effective yields on pesos placements to triple digits, may not be enough to sustain the calm in exchange rates if infected by financial dollarsblue “wakes up”.

The bad inflation in August and the monetary issue linked to this preferential exchange rate for agriculture have once again put pressure on the prices obtained on the stock exchange, which it went up by about $ 20 on five wheels. On Friday, cash settlement ended at $ 301.15 and the MEP dollar rose to $ 293.38.

With partial data up to last Thursday, Nearly $ 450 trillion had been transferred to producers for the sale of the soybean dollar. This figure, according to the calculations of the consulting firm Aurum Valores it is equal to 10% of the monetary base. “Although some of those pesos will permeate various sectors of the economy, some will certainly end up exerting pressure on the commodity and foreign exchange markets, as we have already seen.”

Although the Central Bank has accelerated the daily devaluation rate in recent weeks, the renewed demand for dollarization means it financial exchange rates “fit the heels” of the official dollar: while the latter added, in the first half of the month, an increase of 3.2%, the MEP advanced by 3% and liquidity in liquidation did so by 2.8%.

On the currency front, doubts remain as to whether the costly strategy chosen by Sergio Massa to strengthen reserves will be sufficient to maintain relative stability. “The big question that remains is how foreign exchange policy will continue after the end of September, when the” soybean dollar “runs out,” they told consultancy Delphos.

“The government will have to strike a delicate balance to preserve the reserves it is accumulating in September. A jump in the exchange rate appears as a last resort for political restrictions within the ruling coalition and for the foreseeable acceleration of the already high inflation”, they added.

In this context, the Central Bank has returned tor new inventory adjustments last weekpreventing those who have kept subsidies for energy services from accessing any kind of “legal” dollar and in the Municipality they believe that the body chaired by Miguel Pesce will once again advance in this type of tweaking.

There are expectations for new dollar rise for tourists. Although sources from the Ministry of Economy insist that the issue “is still under consideration”, the decision to “take care of the dollars”, which arises from a request from the industrial sectors, would already be taken and could be announced in the future days.

For now, the City’s consensus is that the government is using all its bullets to avoid falling into a jump in the exchange rate that organizes the rest of the macroeconomic variables.

“For the time being, the free dollar pax exchange rate provides a temporary respite for a picture of relative stability. The soybean dollar has also temporarily reversed the bleeding of currencies. Without substantive solutions, tensions will return in October where inflation will also return, possibly to higher levelsit will make a logical transition to an exchange rate more appropriate to the fragile external situation even more inconvenient “, said Guido Lorenzo, of LCG.