Massa suspends his trip to France due to debts with the Paris Club

A week after Sergio Massa’s tour of the United States, where he made progress on agreements to strengthen reserves, the arrival of new funds from abroad not yet finalized. Pending a signal from the IMF in the context of the talks for the approval of the objectives for the second quarter, the negotiations with the Paris Club it was postponed again, after the suspension of the meeting scheduled for next 29 September.

Clarin’s correspondent in Paris, Maria Laura Avignolo confirmed the postponement of debt negotiations of at least $ 2,000 million, which has already happened previously. Former minister Martín Guzmán was preparing to meet said creditors when he resigned from his position and his successor Silvina Batakis did not arrive to travel in the French capital as he remained in his place for only three weeks. “I still don’t have confirmation of that trip. “they specified to the Ministry of Economy.

In this way, the government andx has extended the procedures at least four times. First, because of the pandemic. Later, when Guzmán agreed on a down payment of $ 430 million in 2021 to continue trading. And, later this year, setting a new deadline until June 30 after having reached an agreement with the Fund, interrupted by the line of ministers. Now, Massa tries close it before the IMF annual meeting, scheduled for the week of 10 October.

The delay with the lending country club coincides with the difficulty in unlocking a disbursement from the Fund of 3,800 million dollars. Economics held in contact last week by Zoom, without being able to seal a technical agreement with the Washington staff, where they awaited the sending of the 2023 Budget to Congress, which finally materialized on Thursday evening. Therefore, according to sources familiar with the negotiation, only this Monday will there be news.

Ads are will meet after the meeting between the head of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva, and the President, who traveled to the United States to attend the United Nations assembly and give the final point to the efforts of Massa. The funds, on the other hand, they would only arrive at the end of the month, once the approval of the board of directors is obtained, for which the Central Bank will have to face these deadlines on Tuesday and Wednesday for 2,600 million dollars, with no new disbursements.

as anticipated Clarione, the entity headed by Miguel Pesce will burn part of the SDRs that the Fund transferred to it in March. Although the “soybean dollar” allowed BCRA to double its net reserves to nearly $ 4 billion, economists believe the situation is still fragile and await further action. The economic and financial team will meet this Monday at noon between versions on the new restrictions on the tourist dollar.

“We continue to assume that in the next few steps there are more chances of ‘splitting with CEPO’ (Tourism at $ 200, for example), compared to a discrete devaluation scenario,” says a report from FyMA, Fernando Marull’s consulting firm. . “Part of the market continues to imagine that once the BCRA manages to ‘accumulate reserves’, it will try to make a ‘trade jump’ to balance the flow of trade. It imagines it before the end of 2022,” he added.

For now Massa managed to avoid a devaluationbut at the cost of paying a dollar to $ 200 per field and extending inventory to pay for imports until December. However, the measures could not contain inflation, which in August rose by 7% in a month and by 78.5% in a year, which led to a new rate adjustment to contain the exchange rate differential. . The BCRA, in turn, accelerated the peso’s devaluation rate to 6.5% per month, always behind inflation.

The minister’s plan provides for a reduction of expenditure, consumption and activities to reach a primary deficit of 1.9% in 2023. “We do not see a clear or less conflicting scenario for the foreign exchange market until the end of the year. On the contrary, we still see that the government will continue to take measures which, coupled with a lower level of activity – due to fiscal and monetary adjustment – allow you to accumulate reserves “, said Claudio Caprarulo, director of Analytica.