“The numbers are clear: we’ve saved thousands of lives,” was François Legault’s reaction, when he saw Quebec posted a much better mortality rate than some countries since the pandemic began. However, experts warn that excessive mortality cannot be diagnosed in a simple way.
No, we cannot interpret this result in this wayexclaimed Simona Bignami, professor in the Department of Demography at the University of Montreal.
According to results released by the Institut de la statistic du Québec (ISQ), last Tuesday, Quebec has posted an excessive mortality rate of 4.5% since March 2020.
Roughly summed up, this means that during the pandemic, the province recorded 4.5% more deaths than usual. Compared to rates recorded in the rest of Canada (6.2%), France (7.3%) and the United States (18%), Quebec is a leader in the world.
Therefore, François Legault took the information by saying that Quebec experienced less proportionally fewer deathsthanking his fellow citizens for their respect for health guidelines more intense than elsewhere.
Professor Bignami is category: This is not the correct interpretation. While he acknowledges that excess mortality is a good indicator for making comparisons, he warns that it is not. not perfect. This is an average, with statistical uncertainty, which cannot be reduced by simply following health rules.
” This figure does not allow us to come to the conclusion that the Prime Minister seems to draw. This average is influenced by a range of factors and it is not possible to isolate a single factor. “
Very complicated
The ISQ, which released statistics this week, confirms that health measures have been adopted in every state is just one of the factors can influence excessive mortality.
There are geographical aspects that can explain this, such as the movements of travelers, the density of the population, the viral strains that are not always in circulation, not always in the same place.explained Frédéric Fleury-Payeur, demographer at ISQ.
Quebec’s good results can therefore be partially attributed to other variables, which do not necessarily prevent people from dying from COVID-19.
The curfew and the mask, for example, could lead to a reduction in flu -related deaths or accidents of all kinds.
” To decide what the contribution of each of these factors is, it is up to public health experts and epidemiologists to do so, but it will be a very complex task. “
A rate that changes over time
Mr. Fleury-Payeur also points out that Quebec does not always have an enviable mortality rate as at present.
At the beginning of the pandemic, when the first wave hit CHSLDs hard, the province was instead one of the most affected areashe recalled.
This is a key element that must be considered, according to Simona Bignami. Excessive mortality estimates should not be taken as an absolute number, as it is a number that changes over time.
If the excessive mortality rate in Quebec subsequently falls, it is partly because thousands of seniors died in the spring of 2020. The following year, therefore not as many people are left as likely to die in COVID-19 in the most vulnerable age groups, explained Ms. Bignami.
His colleague Alain Gagnon, also a professor of demography at the University of Montreal, also hypothesized that the gruesome stories of the first wave may have contributed to a catch againwhich resulted in stricter measures and better adherence to population guidelines.
” There was still a kind of awareness. “
In this sense, Professor Gagnon believes that health rules have played a role in the pretty high mortality rate that Quebec is now experiencing, but insists that more data will be needed to understand the importance of the cause of this link.
Swallows return in the spring, but it is not the swallows that return in the spring, he describes. Correlation is not necessarily proof of statistical association.
Soon the effects of load shedding?
Professor Gagnon also warned that Quebec is not immune to increasing mortality in the coming years, as the province will need to do some load shedding to maintain its health network.
If many citizens are suffering from delayed consequences, this is likely to be reflected in the statistics.
” We need to know if all these delays in surgical interventions, tests, will not have effects on long -term mortality. We haven’t done that yet. “
It may take several years before it emerges on the life expectancy curves.he says.
Source: Radio-Canada
