An important diplomatic and strategic ballet on two continents begins this week, between Western countries and those in the process of development.
Justin Trudeau’s first stop: the Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting in Kigali, capital of Rwanda. The grouping of 54 countries, a remnant of the British Empire, rarely commands attention. But the situation is different this time.
The Commonwealth is grappling with deep divisions over the war in Ukraine. Some Commonwealth countries have downright pro-Russian positionsexplains Frédéric Mérand, professor of political science at the University of Montreal.
Almost 20% of Commonwealth countries abstained from denouncing the Russian invasion in a vote at the UN in the spring.
Developing African countries, but also bigger players like South Africa, India and Pakistan, refuse to get involved, for fear of damaging their diplomatic or economic relationship with Russia.
The backstage of the Commonwealth summit will therefore be the scene of negotiations and negotiations to try to convince some of them to change sides.
Prime Minister Trudeau will work very hard to rally these countriessays a senior representative of the Trudeau government. We will have candid conversations in person around the table.
How does Canada plan to fare well?
Solve the food crisis
Russia blocks export of millions of tons of Ukrainian grain, a real war crimebelieves Josep Borell, the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs.
Russia’s War Holds South Africa Hostage due to rising food prices, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a speech to the African Union earlier this week.
However, several Commonwealth countries sensitive to Russian propaganda believe that this food crisis is the fault of the West, for having imposed sanctions against the regime of Vladimir Putin.
For Western countries, the food crisis only translates into a little inflation. But for some countries in the Middle East or sub-Saharan Africa, it can mean famine.points out Frédéric Mérand.
Justin Trudeau therefore intends to use part of his time at the Commonwealth summit to court the countries who are small, fragile, vulnerableand who feel that their food security, access to gasoline, natural gas and food, is diminishedsays a senior government official.
To help bring these developing countries into their fold, the Western Commonwealth countries intend to provide financial and humanitarian assistance to build resilience to climate change and food security, and contribute to sustainable developmentsays a Canadian representative.
A charm operation that will continue at the G7 in Germany, the second leg of the trip, from June 26 to 28.
G7, Russia and developing countries
Food security will be one of the key issues of the G7. Moreover, this group of the seven most industrialized countries invited India, South Africa, Argentina and Senegal to discuss it. Of these four countries, only Argentina denounced Russian actions in Ukraine.
Senegal is a country that is very much in demand at the moment, both by Westerners and by Russia.observes Professor Frédéric Mérand.
Moreover, just before the G7 summit, China organizes a meeting of emerging countries with Russia, India, South Africa and Brazil, in order to counterbalance the tendency of Western countries to form small cliques and fight against American hegemonysays Beijing.
The G7 countries therefore feel an urgent need to demonstrate that they are receptive to the demands of developing countries, which are strongly courted by Russia and China.
Canada intends to seize the opportunity of the G7 to offer its expertise in the field of agriculture, in order to bring some respite to the food crisis in these countries.
Canada can share its talent in grain transportation and storage. We have the best experts in the world for this kind of logistics, over great distances and despite hot or cold weathersays a senior diplomatic representative of Canada.
But the charm operation of the West is not won in advance, according to Benoit Hardy-Chartrand, associate researcher at the Raoul-Dandurand Chair and professor at Temple University in Tokyo.
These countries are not necessarily ready to break their existing ties with Russia, which makes it difficult for Canada and other Western players to bring them into their fold.continues the professor.
Fault lines about Russia against which even allies of theNATO are not immune.
The cracks of theNATO
The final leg of Justin Trudeau’s trip will be the summit of theNATO in Madrid, from June 28 to 30. The crucial question of the next military and humanitarian steps in the war in Ukraine is currently dividing the members of the Atlantic Alliance.
French President Emmanuel Macron spoke of the importance of not humiliating Vladimir Putin, thus opening the door to a negotiation so that Russia retains part of the Ukrainian territory it occupies.
A position that is contrary to the desire expressed by Ukraine, supported by Canada, which wishes to protect the integrity of its territory.
We’re starting to have some differences within theNATO in relation to how to manage Russia in the medium and long termsays Stefanie Von Hlatky, professor of political studies at Queen’s University.
The great challenge of this meeting is to ensure that the Allies maintain their unityboth on the additional aid to be sent to Ukraine and on the political positioning of the Alliance, adds the professor.
To this end, Turkey’s opposition to Sweden’s and Finland’s application for membership of theNATO will constitute another test of the cohesion of the members of the Atlantic Alliance.
Source: Radio-Canada
