End of the “student” vacation at Fort Brégançon. Emmanuel Macron is bracing for a turbulent comeback, with the French overwhelmed by the economic fallout from the war in Ukraine and an opposition on the prowl.
The president and government will return no later than Wednesday for the Council of Ministers after a summer break interrupted by unprecedented fires in France and deadly thunderstorms in Corsica.
In the face of adversity, the tone is marked: “The red thread at the beginning of the school year will be the general mobilization,” they say in the entourage of the Head of State. With a slogan, “energetic sobriety”.
Heated debates to come in the Assembly
Emmanuel Macron prepared the French on July 14 for a difficult autumn, with the risk of energy shortages fueled by the gas conflict with Russia. Commemorating the 78th anniversary of the Landing in Provence on Friday, the Head of State dramatized the issue by invoking “the price to pay for freedom.”
For the Executive, deprived of an absolute majority since June, the political horizon is also darkening after a first jump of obstacles without too many problems on the purchasing power package.
“They started with an exercise on ‘easy’ topics like purchasing power. The most difficult part is coming”, anticipates the political scientist Bruno Cautrès.
The opposition is determined to fight over the 2023 budget and heated debates are brewing over reform of unemployment insurance, pensions or immigration.
Despite everything, the executive is confident
With a dilemma for the presidential field, “how to stay the course left and right” and “not fall into a form of coalition with Les Républicains”, says Bruno Cautrès. However, the executive wants to have confidence.
“We approach the start of the new school year with serenity when there is a clear course, coherence and perseverance in the action that is carried out, as well as total lucidity about the challenges to be faced,” he assures the president’s entourage.
The course is “sovereignty”, especially in energy matters, the “fight for the climate” and “equal opportunities”. In the last days of August there will be a government seminar dedicated in particular to ecology.
Long-awaited speech by Borne on the energy transition
Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne is also due to deliver a “strong speech on energy sobriety and transition” at Medef’s summer school in late August. The Head of State asked him to “present in the autumn an ecological planning agenda broken down by month and year,” specifies the Elysee.
He himself will take a trip dedicated to offshore wind turbines in early September and will speak on educational topics at the beginning of the school year.
Emmanuel Macron will also launch the National Council for Refoundation (CNR), which should involve elected officials, economic and social actors and citizens in consultation, on September 8 on the issues of school, health and public services. .
Immigration bill delayed until December
So many issues likely to speak to the center-left, such as the debate on the right to vote for foreigners initiated by deputy Sacha Houlié (Renaissance). On this issue, “the president was not consulted and considers that it is not a priority”, however, observes a regular at the Elysee.
Among the most promising issues on the right, the draft law on orientation and programming of the Ministry of the Interior (Lopmi), which must provide an additional 15,000 million euros of budget in five years, will be examined in Parliament in October.
The immigration bill was postponed to December, at the request of the Elysee and Matignon, and will be preceded by a “great debate” in both chambers.
Crude opposition on budget issue
Regarding the budget, the presidential field does not rule out going through article 49.3 of the Constitution, which allows the adoption of a text without a vote, compromising the responsibility of the government.
“Since we assume that the Nupes (at least) are going to ask for thousands of amendments, it is difficult to see how we could do anything else…”, concedes a member of the majority.
“The political situation is unstable,” says a close friend of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who sees “two solutions”: “either a stable coalition between Macron and LR, or in the end a return to the polls,” with dissolution.
Source: BFM TV
