The ATP finals in Turin, which will be played next week, will determine which player will finish 2022 as number one in the world. There are three names with the possibility of ending the year at the top, in a competition that will see two present at the tournament “Masters” and that could end with an unusual definition.

The Spanish Carlos Alcarazwho will miss the Italian appointment due to a muscle injury suffered in Paris Master 1.000 and forced to lower the curtain on his season, he has many chances to remain leader of the standings. But he could lose it at the hands of his compatriot Rafael Nadalsecond or from the Greek Stefanos TsitsipasThird, who needs great performances in the last event of the year to replace him.

Alcaraz, who became the youngest number one in history in August at the age of 19, has accumulated 6,820 points and will not lose any due to his absence in Turin. Is that at this point last year I was contesting the New generation finals in Milan with other talents under 21, including Sebastian Baez. Nadal has 5,820 units and Tsitsipas, 5,350. Nor will they defend the points in the final round of the season: the first did not play in 2021 and the second retired due to injury in the second round of the Italian, after falling in the first, so he did not add.

The Greek, winner of the 2019 ATP Finals, must sign a perfect performance in Turin to reach the top for the first time. He should be crowned undefeated champion, with whom he would take 1,500 points (200 for each match won in the group, 400 for the exultation in the semifinals and 500 for the victory in the final) and would reach 6,850, thirty more than Alcaraz has. If he loses one of the three matches he will play in the Italian group, he will no longer have a chance.

The landscape is more open for Nadal. If the Spaniard wins his first ‘Maestro’ title, he will return to number one, even if he will lose a game or two in the opening round along the way. A coronation without falls would bring him to 7,320 points. If you win with a defeat, you will reach 7,120. If he does it with two (a little less likely, because it is rare to advance to the semifinals with a 1-2 pool record), he would reach 6,920. In all three cases, the Alcaraz crop would improve.

The Majorcan, the same, could recover the top even without lifting the trophy. To do so, he must reach the final by winning all three matches in the Italian group and hope that Tsitsipas does not take the crown. That scenario would generate a curious definition between Rafa Y Charlie Brown, because the two Spaniards would be on equal points, with 6,820 each. And the tiebreaker criteria of the ATP should be used, which would favor the Majorcan.

The regulation states that, if there are two players who have the same number of units, the one who has collected the most of the compulsory tournaments on the calendar – the four Grand Slams – will be higher (remember that this year Wimbledon did not distribute points) and eight of the nine Masters 1,000 (Montecarlo is the only one not to enter this group) – and the ATP finals.

Alcaraz added 2,450 in the majors (2,000 of the title in the US Open360 of the quarters Roland Garros and 90 of the third round of Australia) and 2,730 from the Master (he was champion in You love me Y Madridsemifinalist a Indian wellsreached the quarter-finals in Cincinnati Y Paris and fell in the second round in Montreal). In total, 5,180 units.

Nadal scored 4,180 in the most important tournaments on the calendar (4,000 for raising trophies in Melbourne and Paris and 180 for reaching the round of 16 in New York) and 890 in the Masters 1,000 (final in Indian Wells, quarter-finals in Madrid, eighth in Rome and round two in Cincinnati and Paris last week, when he was seen losing pace after a two-month hiatus).

To those 5,070 the Spaniard would add another 1,000 that he would win in Turin to be a finalist without losing a match of the Italian group, with which he would reach 6,070, 890 more than his young compatriot, and would return to number one.

If Alcaraz or Tsitsipas win first place after the Turin tournament, whoever reaches it will become the 18th player to do so since the ATP ranking was drawn up in August 1973.

If the one who finishes in the lead is Nadal, the Majorcan will add his sixth season by ranking as leader of the standings (he had already done so in 2008, 2010, 2013, 2017 and 2019) and will match the American brand Pietro Sampraswho obtained it consecutively between 1993 and 1998. It will also remain one behind the record of Novak Djokovic, who finished the season in the top seven times, 2011, 2012, 2014, 2015, 2018, 2020 and 2021.