Betting thermometer: the gap between what is paid for the table and Argentina’s elimination has narrowed

The unexpected defeat on his World Cup debut hit hard. The impact of Argentina’s loss to Saudi Arabia was great. And it felt strong everywhere. Also, in the world of gambling. All the imaginary collapsed at the end of the game, the algorithms exploded and the lists were recalculated. So much so that, now, the gap between what is paid for the classification and the elimination of the Selection has greatly reduced.

Prior to the Saudi Arabia match, the average payout by major bookmakers was just 1.08 due to Lionel Scaloni’s side entering the round of 16 and failing to make it past the opening stage multiplied by 10 or more the bet. Now, after 1-2 with the Arabs, everything has changed. The Argentine classification (either first or second) is paid 1.45 (and if it is first 2.25, when before it paid 1.40) and elimination: 2.55!.

Before the start of the World Cup, the elimination of the Argentine team in the first round was practically unthinkable. That’s why he paid so much. The more a bet pays for an outcome, the more unlikely it is. Conversely, bookmakers give little margin to obvious predictions.

How unlikely was an Argentine defeat in the previous one, the major bookmakers they bid more than 20 times what had been wagered in favor of the Arabs. That is, whoever paid 1,000 got 20,000. It wasn’t a bargain to do it for Argentina: he paid less than 20 cents for each peso played.

Is that, according to the major betting houses, the odds were 82 percent, against 5 percent for Saudi Arabia. How come? They had not lost their last 36 games, five games without defeat, against only one victory from their rival in their last seven encounters.

The defeat against Saudi Arabia has not only changed the numbers in the standings. Also, those of coronation odds. Prior to their World Cup debut, Argentina paid 6.50 and were second, behind top seeded Brazil (4.50). Now, according to comments from Codere, the bookmaker that sponsors River and Real Madrid, “Argentina has moved from second to fifth place.” And how much is the pay? Out of 9.

Meanwhile, the numbers have also changed in the other options. That Argentina reaches the quarterfinals pays 2.10; who reaches the semifinals, 2.85; and which is a finalist, 4.3. And the last options that pay the most, with Argentina as protagonist, are against: Spain (40), France (34) and England (27).

That, however, is far off for now. The immediate thing is to try to reverse the bad start and start stomping. And despite their defeat to Saudi Arabia, Argentina remain the favorites in the betting odds to qualify, as victories against Mexico and Poland pay far less.

Against the Mexicans, the Argentine’s victory costs 1.60 and that of Tata Martino’s team 5.50. While, against the Poles, you pay 1.45 for Argentina’s victory and that of the group which has Robert Lewandowski as its figure.

GL