Rafael Nadal risks losing a series of records: leaving the top 10 after almost 18 years

Rafael Nadal He entered the top 10 in the world rankings for the first time on April 25, 2005. One day after winning the first of his 12 titles in the ATP Barcelona (and fifth career trophy) with a victory in the final against his compatriot Juan Carlos FerreroA Raf The 18-year-old appeared seventh in the ATP rankings. And he never left that elite group again, in which he was 910 uninterrupted weeks. But, with the Spaniard absent from the courts since mid-January, that streak, the second-longest in tennis history, could end next Monday if there are strings of results at tournaments in Dubai and Acapulco.

The Spaniard is recovering today from the injury to the iliopsoas muscle of his left leg, sustained in the return match of the second leg Australian Open which he lost to the American mackenzie mcdonald. That physical problem prevented him from defending the title in Melbourne and also the one he won last year in Acapulco (and will also exclude him from Indian Wells). The points haemorrhage caused by his inactivity has plunged him from the second rung of the league table, in which he started 2023, to eighth, his worst position since the start of 2017. And there are three players who could surpass him with good luck. performance this week and knock him out of the top ten group, after almost 18 years: Felix Auger-Aliassime, Rune Holger AND Hubert Hurkacz.

For this to happen there must be three situations: Auger Aliassime, who is ninth with 70 points less than Nadal (3,245 against 3,315), must reach the quarter-finals in Dubai; Hurkacz, 11th at 250 from the Spaniard, finalist in that same tournament; and Rune, tenth at 154, reaching the semifinals in acapulco.

The Canadian, seeded fourth in the Arab tournament, beat the American 7-6 (7-4), 3-6, 6-3 in opener Maxime Cressi and he will reach this requirement if he beats the Italian in the round of 16 Lorenzo Soneo (67th).

Rune, fourth favorite also on Mexican hard courts, needed three sets to overcome another American in the first round, Ben Shelton, host of the organization, for 6-7 (7-9), 6-4 and 6-2. The biggest obstacle on the horizon on the way to the semifinals was Cameron Norie12th in the world and recent champion in Rio de Janeirobut the Briton decided to drop out of the tournament, tired after two intense weeks on the brick dust tour (he was also a finalist in Buenos Aires).

Hurkacz’s chances of reaching the final in Dubai are tougher. The Pole made his debut on Tuesday by beating the Russian Alexander Shevchenko (lucky loser) but should overcome tough rivals, like the Serbian Novak Djokovicthe absolute favorite, and the Russian Daniel Medvedevthird, to reach the decisive instance.

If the Canadian, Dane and Pole meet these conditions, they would overtake Nadal and drop him out of the top 10. The Spaniard would then leave his record of staying in that group for 910 consecutive weeks, which won’t be in jeopardy. Why Raf Conveniently command that stat on the circuit ATP extension, escorted by fourth retired players. In second place the 788 weeks of Jimmy Connor; in the third, the 734 of Roger Federer; room is located ivan lendl, with 619; and fifth, pete sampras with 565.

Novak Djokovicwho looks set to break all racket world records (he is already the tennis player who has spent the most time at the top of the rankings and one of those who has won the most Grand Slams -22, the same as Nadal, for example), is sixth in that list with a much lower record than that of the Mallorcan: “just” 555 weeks, between March 2007 and October 2017.

The absolute record is held by the Czech-American Martina Navratilovwinner of 18 Grand Slam tournaments, who spent 1,000 weeks in the top ten of the world singles chart WTA between November 3, 1975 and December 26, 1994.

Doubt about return

If Nadal’s streak in the top 10 survives this week, there’s still a good chance it will end in the coming weeks. Because after a complicated start to the season due to that injury to his left leg, the Spaniard’s return to the track has not yet been confirmed. And although the initial term envisaged a return in the Masters of Indian Wells 1000Rafa confirmed this on Tuesday will not play that competition, which begins next Wednesday, nor the one in You love mefrom Wednesday 22.

The Spaniard – who also missed the tournaments in Doha and Dubai due to this physical problem and resigned from the exhibition he planned to play with Carlos Alcaraz in Vegas on Sunday – seems to be aiming for slow European tour.

On Monday, the images showing him training on clay were published on social media. Your first commitment would be then Montecarloa tournament he has won eleven times and which always helps him fine-tune his game Madrid, Rome AND Roland Garros.

Thus, on March 20, he will lose the 600 points he had to defend in Indian Wells, where he was a finalist last year, and which are the only ones he will put into play between now and the start of the tournament in the Monegasque capital.

Auger Aliassime, on the other hand, will have to revalidate only 20 in the same period (10 from Indian Wells and 10 from Miami); Hurkacz, 270 (90 from the Californian Masters and 180 from the Florida one); and Runes, only 41 that he added in the first of those tournaments. The three will have the chance to feed their crops, overcome the Mallorcan line and end his long stay in the top 10.

What would this drop in ranking imply? That he would not be among the top favorites in powder tournaments in Europe, so he would not be released in the early rounds and would have a better chance of running into tougher rivals in the opening stages. In any case, if he arrives well physically, he could make up ground in that stretch of the season (favored by the Majorcan), given that he didn’t play in Montecarlo last year, he lost in the quarterfinals in Madrid and in the round of 16 in Rome .