Three weeks before Roland Garros, will Rafael Nadal play the tournament where he is king?

He Rome Masters 1000 will start this Wednesday, with the fight between Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic for number one as the top attraction and with an absent weight, Rafael Nadal. The Spaniard, who has been inactive since January (he suffered a grade 2 tear to the iliac psoas in his left leg at the Australian Open), has announced he will not play in the Italian Forum because I was not yet one hundred percent ready to compete at the highest level. And it opened a huge question mark about his participation in Roland Garros.

The 14th in the standings and winner of 22 “majors” ensured that he had noticed “an improvement”, but that he hadn’t trained intensely for many months and that “the process of readjustment has its time”. Times which, perhaps, are not compatible with his intentions to play the French Grand Slam, which will start in just twenty days.

Going Raf towards Paris? In Spain, many assume so. This tournament is his main goal every season and the Spaniard hasn’t missed a single edition since his debut in 2005. Even when physical problems complicated him in the months leading up to that event, he always found a way to play it. For what that tournament means to his career, he’ll do whatever it takes to be there. More considering that a decline would cause it to drop out of the top 100 for the first time since April 2003.

Although this time the desire may not reach him. The Spaniard returned to training on clay in mid-March, intending to re-enter the start of the slow round in Europe. But he couldn’t play in Montecarlo, Barcelona or Madrid and neither will Roma play.

“In principle it was supposed to be six to eight weeks of recovery and now we are at fourteen. The situation is not what we expected,” he said announcing his absence at the magic box. To find out what will happen at Roland Garros, we just have to wait.

Assuming that, finally, he says he is present in Paris, other questions arise that are more difficult to answer: how will he get there? Will she be able to play her best tennis of her? Will she be able to fight for the trophy?

There are those who say that Nadal is always the favorite in the French Grand Slam. He is the favorite if he arrives physically and tennisly, if he arrives touched and also if he arrives without a competitive rhythm. His incredible tournament record – 14 titles, 112 wins and just three falls, in a career marred by many injuries – backs up that claim.

In 2022, without going any further, he won the title beating Djokovic, number one in the world, in the quarterfinals, and in the final against Casper Ruud. In the semifinal she benefited from the withdrawal of Alexander Zverev due to injury. After his enshrinement, he stated that he had been competing since the third round with his left foot “absolutely asleep” due to pain from the chronic injury he has suffered since 2005.

Last year, all the same, he had played more in the first half. After Australia, he won Acapulco, was a finalist in Indian Wells and played in Madrid (quarters) and Rome (round of 16). In this 2023, his last appearance was on January 18, when he fell to mackenzie macdonald in the second round in Melbourne. When the Roland Garros main draw kicks off on May 28, it will be 130 days without a match for the Spaniard. Likewise, in his environment, this inactivity doesn’t worry too much.

“With Nadal you can always expect him to pull the rabbit out of the hat. He’s always been an urban legend who needs many games to be ready, but when he’s come back from injury he’s always performed well,” said his coach. . Carlos Moia.

Logic doesn’t seem to apply when it comes to Nadal in Paris. It is popularly believed that in Bois de BoulogneA Raf at 50 percent more than the best versions of many of its rivals. But this year he will have a couple of opponents who could challenge that ruling.

Your main threat will be alcaraz. The Murciano is great, with four titles and five finals in six tournaments played this year and, at 20, physically and mentally strong. His recent consecration in Madrid has confirmed that he is a candidate in all the tournaments he plays. Even at Roland Garros with his compatriot in the pits.

Another with the possibility of embittering Nadal is Djokovic, responsible for two of the three defeats suffered by the Spaniard in Paris (quarter-finals of 2015 and semi-finals of 2021). In the brick dust tour, the Serbian, champion in Australia, fell in the round of 16 in Monte Carlo and in the quarterfinals in Banja Luka. And he didn’t play in magic box due to right elbow pain. We will have to see what he will do in Rome, where he will defend the trophy and number one.

Is there another player capable of taking on the Spaniards in the “big” French? Difficult to make a list. Possibly Ruud the Greek Stephen Tsitsipas or Italian Jannik sinnerif they are on a big day.

In the end everything always depends on Nadal. And before starting to speculate whether or not he can lift the trophy for the 15th time, we’ll have to wait for him to answer that question that still hangs in the air today. Going Raf towards Paris?