The fight for number 1 in the ATP ranking reaches the brick dust: what Sinner needs to maintain Djokovic’s throne and Alcaraz’s chances

Novak Djokovic He is in his 419th week as world number 1 and extends his record – far, far away from Roger Federer’s 310 – but He knows his kingdom is in danger. He started the year with a 2,390 point lead Carlos Alcaraz and the difference compared to its current supply, which is Jannik Sinner, is 1,015 units. And 1,080 brings it to the Spanish. These two young talents called to be the future of tennis, aged 20 and 22 respectively, are very similar to the winner of 24 Grand Slam tournaments.

The Serbian had the opportunity to score important points at Indian Wells and the Miami Masters 1000, two tournaments he did not play in 2023 due to his refusal to be vaccinated against Covid-19, but he left the United States with a only victory (against Aleksandar Vukic on his debut in the Californian desert) and the pursuers are chasing him.

That adds to the ground he began to lose at the Australian Open, where he arrived as defending champion and lost in the semifinals to then-champion Sinner. Previously, he had not traveled to compete in the ATP 250 in Adelaide, another event in which he was defending his title. It is only the third season since 2006, when he lifted his first trophy in Amerstoof, that he has reached April without claiming the title. It also happened to him in 2022 and 2018.

In this way, its leadership in the rankings is seriously at risk. The fight will continue with the European clay court tour, which has already started in Houston, Marrakech and Estoril and will continue with the first highlight from Sunday with the dispute of Montecarlo M1000. Then Madrid and Rome will come as highlights and everything will lead to Roland Garros. Know how much each person has to defend.

Djokovic was eliminated in the round of 16 in Monte Carlo last year and will only defend 100 points. Alcaraz hasn’t played there since 2022, so he will have everything to add. And Sinner deserves 400 units for reaching the semi-finals.

However, The Italian is the one who has the least to defend in the accumulated tour that will culminate in the Parisian Slam. There are just 635 points: those 400 from the Principality, 90 from the quarter-finals in Barcelona, ​​100 from the round of 16 in Rome and 45 from the early elimination in the round of 16 in Paris.

In return, Nole He is the one with the most votes with a total of 2,350 points: To the 100 in Monte Carlo we must add the 50 in the quarterfinals in Banja Luka, the 200 in the quarterfinals in Rome and the 2,000 in the Roland Garros title. And Alcaraz, with a similar scenario, has 2,270 on the table: 1,500 from the consecrations in Barcelona and Madrid, just 50 from Rome due to the surprise that Fabian Marozsan reserved for him in the third round and 720 from the semi-final lost to Djokovic at the Philippe Chatrier.

In this context, Sinnerwho after being champion in Miami became the first Italian to reach second place in the world rankings, has a great chance of climbing to number 1 in that fight that will be fought in the next two months.

Although, obviously, Djokovic’s hierarchy, which is strengthened in major events, weighs when it comes to making predictions, regardless of the fact that his latest results have not been the best. He is already training at the Monte Carlo Country Club, where he trained with Holger Rune on Monday, and is preparing to resist as much as possible at the top.

While Alcaraz has shown an erratic pace in recent months, The sinner comes with everything. He won three of the four tournaments played during the year and lost, for the only time, against the Spaniard at Indian Wells. He is currently the best tennis player in the world even if the ranking, which rewards the results of the last 52 weeks, does not place him in the top places.

In any case, always with a low profile, he shuns any triumphalism. “I don’t have much time to prepare for Monte Carlo, so my next goal is to try to gain confidence on clay,” she said.

And he adds: “We know what we need to improve. Now we’re approaching a stretch of the season in which I normally have problems”. Only one of his 12 titles was won on dirt and it was an ATP 250 (Umag, 2022). He also wants to make the leap in quality necessary to get to number one on that surface. And to begin the era of him.