Colorado-Tampa Bay. The irresistible aspirants against the champions. The final that everyone wants to see. The titanic shock predicted by bookmakers in October. In unison, experts expect a long streak. However, their predictions are very nuanced on the identity of the captain who will lift the Stanley Cup.
While preparing this column, I remembered a particularly interesting text I read on New York Times about ten years ago, before the final between the Los Angeles Kings and New Jersey Devils began.
The authors of this article, Carlton Chin (an investment fund manager) and Jay Granat (a psychotherapist), have just published a book entitled Who Will Win the Big Game? A Psychological and Mathematical Approach.
Typically, Chin and Granat said they exclude the 50 dominant statistical traits and psychological traits of team champions in the NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, and major golf and tennis tournament winners.
By weighing certain statistical and sports psychology factors (such as big game experience, leadership quality and consistency), the authors said they developed an effective method for determining the team that was most likely. to win. do: perform better than their rivals and reduce mistakes.
The Lightning-Avalanche confrontation proves to be a very good opportunity to try out their technique. It’s not every day that two-time Stanley Cup champions get into the Finals and they’re the underdogs of bookmakers.
For its simple pleasure, I have therefore updated the data published on New York Times on the eve of the 2012 final.
The results are very interesting …
The offensive star : In the past 42 years, the team with the best offensive player (the one with the most points in the season) has won the Stanley Cup 65.9% of the time. This trend (which was 62.5% in 2012) has increased over the past 10 years, as the team with the best offensive player won 70% of the finals.
However, the Lightning bet on the player with the most points this season on Steven Stamkos (106). The Lightning captain had 14 more points than Mikko Rantanen. And when it comes to average points per game, Nikita Kucherov (1.47) is better than Nathan Mackinnon (1.35).
collective defense : In the past 42 years, the finalist team with the best goals against average has won the Stanley Cup 24 times (57.1%). This data is almost the same as 10 years ago (56.3%). One downside, however: in the last five years, the cup has only been won once by the best defensive team.
For the Colorado-Tampa Bay final, Lightning will have the advantage in this regard. The Champions built the NHL’s second defense this season (2.41 goals per game), while the Avalanche came in 4th place (2.86).
The best keeper : In the past 42 years, the team with the number one goaltender maintaining the best efficiency rate of the season has won the Stanley Cup 24 times (57.1%). And since 2012, the best goalkeeper has raised the cup 6 out of 10 times.
From a psychological perspective, the authors Chin and Granat also linked a goalkeeper’s efficiency rate to concepts such as consistency, minimization of mistakes, mental strength and leadership.
Under normal circumstances, surprisingly, the Colorado Avalanche will hold the advantage if Chin and Granat’s method is reliable. In fact, Darcy Kuemper maintains this season’s rate (of .921) slightly higher than Andrei Vasilevskyi (.916). The problem was Kuemper was injured at the end of May and did not show transcendent numbers (.897) before giving up his place to reserve Pavel Francouz. However, Kuemper is expected to return to the final.
In all of this, we must not forget the fact that Vasilevskyi, regardless of his season average, is recognized as the best goalkeeper in the world by his peers and that he is one of the most dominant in playoff history. Even those predicting a victory for the Avalanche will admit a very clear advantage to Lightning on the net.
The experience of beautiful moments : In their book, the authors measured the experience of the highlights by considering the number of finals in which players and coaches participated in the past three years. This, according to them, is a decisive factor in conquering a championship.
Over the past 10 years, 4 teams have advanced to the finals with an advantage over their opponents in terms of experience. And the four raised Lord Stanley’s bowl.
In this field, after winning 2 cups and 11 consecutive playoffs, the Lightning enjoy a very clear advantage over the Avalanche. Not even a single photo.
In conclusion : the most identifiable offensive factor is leaning in favor of Lightning. And so are the two defensive factors that the authors found to be statistically most important.
Finally, when it comes to intangibles like the experience gained in recent championship games, the Lightning enjoy the clearest advantage any NHL team has had in the past 40 years.
For all these reasons, Lightning in 7.
Source: Radio-Canada
