Climate change will increase the risk of new infectious diseases

This is especially true in Africa and Asia, two continents that have been leading the transmission of the virus from humans to animals, or vice versa, over the past few decades, particularly in relation to influenza, Ebola and coronavirus.

The researchers, whose findings were published Thursday in the journal Natureused modeling to evaluate the migration potential of more than 3000 species of mammals, and the sharing of viruses that could result, over the next 50 years if the planet warms by 2 degrees Celsius, which is possible according to recent studies. study.

They found that the exchange of cross-species viruses would occur more than 4000 times in mammals alone. Birds and marine animals were not part of the study.

The researchers clarified that not all viruses will take a step in humans and that not all of them will cause a pandemic the same size as the coronavirus, but the increasing number of viruses that jump from one species to another. one more. Another also increases the risk of spreading to humans.

The study highlights two global crises, climate change and the spread of infectious diseases, as the world thinks about how to deal with each.

Previous studies have looked at how deforestation, extinction and the wildlife trade lead to a spread from animals to humans, but there is less research on how climate change may influence such transmission, Researchers explain.

We don’t talk much about climate in the context of zoonoses, diseases that can be passed from animals to humans.said one of the study’s co-authors, biology professor Colin Carlson of Georgetown University. Our study brings together the two most pressing crises we face.

Climate change and infectious disease experts agree that a warmer planet is likely to increase the risk of new viruses emerging.

Daniel R. Brooks, a biologist from the University of Nebraska, said the study describes the risk posed by climate change in terms of the increased risk of infectious diseases.

This particular contribution is a very conservative estimate of potential spread of new infectious diseases due to climate change, he warns.

Dr. Aaron Bernstein, the acting director of Center for Climate, Health, and the Global Environment from Harvard University, says the study confirms long-standing doubts about the impact of global warming on the emergence of infectious diseases.

Of particular note, this study suggests that such encounters may occur more frequently, in areas where many people live.said Dr. Bernstein.

A co-author of the study, ecologist Gregory Albery of Georgetown University, said that since an outbreak of infectious diseases caused by climate change is likely already happening, the planet should learn about it. and prepare to face it.

This is inevitable, even in the best of climate change scenariossaid Mr. Alberty.

Mr. Carlson, who is also co-author of the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, recalled that we should reduce greenhouse gas emissions and phase out fossil fuels to reduce the risk of spreading infectious diseases.

Jaron Browne, of the band Grassroots Global Justice Alliancesaid that study highlights the injustice affecting the inhabitants of African and Asian countries.

African and Asian countries are more at risk from increased exposure to the virus, which illustrates again how those on the front lines of the crisis are often not very responsible for climate change.he pointed out.