All heat waves are enhanced by global warming, experts say

Warming caused by human activities also increases the frequency and intensity of flooding in some parts of the world and some droughts, but the link is less systematic, according to the document published Wednesday and presented as a guide for journalists. .

There is no doubt that climate change is changing the rules of the game when it comes to heat wavestold AFP one of the authors, Friederike Otto, of Imperial College London.

Every heatwave in the world today is stronger and more likely to occur due to man -made climate changeinsist the researcher and his co-author Ben Clarke, of the University of Oxford, in the document.

So. don’t be too carefulthe heat waves are in relation to global warmingthey tell the media covering these heat waves.

Until recently, scientists were reluctant to formally associate any particular event with climate change, but the so-called science of attribution has made tremendous progress in recent years, helping to identify and quantify the responsibility for heating at a weather event, sometimes over several days.

For example, Friederike Otto and his colleagues from References to World Time it is estimated that the unusual heat wave that hit North America in June 2021, with a record 49.6 ° C in Canada, will be almost impossible without heating.

The heat wave is still being tested this spring in India and Pakistan, but what we see now would be normal, albeit cold, in a world between +2 ° C and +3 ° Ccommented Friederike Otto.

So far, the world has gained about 1.2 ° C on average compared to the pre-industrial era.

But heating is not necessarily equally at fault in all extreme events, except heat waves. Experts stress the need to consider the role of other factors in certain disasters (territorial planning, water management, etc.).

And sometimes climate change has nothing to do with it. Thus, the experts of References to World Time It is estimated that warming plays only a small role in the extraordinary drought and famine that will hit Madagascar from 2019 to 2021: the expected increase in drought on this island is expected by climate models from +2 ° C.