A notable development of the Brazilian elections it is the notorious failure of the main Brazilian pollsters who, in a homogeneous group, predicted a sure and consistent victory for the former president Lula da Silva.
A few hours before the election, two of these companies, the prestigious Datafolha and its competitor IPEC, assessed that the PT leader practically prevailed in the first round. collecting 50/51% of voting intentions.
All the other research companies have made the same mistakes. The discussion had focused on whether or not there was a vote.
This election was a particularly difficult challenge for these companies. They have to track down a huge country, with security difficulties even in some cities like Rio de Janeiro.
One of the reasons for these complications is that the government of Jair Bolsonaro prevented from carrying out the update census in 2020. So the basis by which measurement institutes explore electoral behavior, make their own assessments, and measure by age, income, gender or race level is twelve years old.
According to specialists, one of the most significant problems is the economic valuation of Brazilian society. In Brazil, poverty is measured by how many minimum wages the individual or family accesses. An indicator to round the survey it is the economic division in society.
This allows the institutions to review, as if they were steps, the different levels of Brazilian income and from there detect how each sector rates and its preferences.
The IPEC (Inteligência em Pesquisa e Consultoría Estratégica) estimates that around 57 percent of all current voters receive around two minimum wages, around $ 400, insufficient to support the current expenses of a family.
But other companies reduce that percentage to 38%, a significant difference. This is very important because a very central part of the vote for Lula da Silva is in those poor or low-income sectors. There are also differences on the segments with the best income, for example with five or more minimum wages. For some it is 22% of the population, for others it does not reach 15%.
The problem is that none of these companies have made these shortcomings clear. On the contrary, they behaved with such a level of assertiveness that it generated a common reaction from the press. Even politicians who organized their campaign around those numbers that the Bolsonaro camp assured at all times that they were wrong.
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Source: Clarin
