Beyond the polarized Lula-Bolsonaro duel for the presidency of Brazil, deputies and governors of the 27 states will be elected this Sunday, including São Paulo, the richest and most populous, where the left is aiming to win for the first time in history.
A victory for former President Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva, who is the poll favorite of President Jair Bolsonaro, would represent a new left turn of the country largest in Latin America and its first economy, and the return to power of the Workers’ Party (PT) after four years of the far-right Bolsonaro.
But polls predict another possible electoral milestone for Sunday.
The PT goes to the governorate of San Pablo
The PT (center-left) has never won the governorship of the state of Sao Paulo, home to one in five Brazilian and the country’s economic engine, but its candidate, Fernando Haddad – who contested the presidency with Bolsonaro four years ago – leads the polls.
This former mayor of the megalopolis of São Paulo and the dolphin of Lula, defeated by Bolsonaro in the presidential elections of 2018, is ahead with 35% of the voting intentions.
He is followed by Tarcísio de Freitas (26%), a former Bolsonaro minister and current center-right governor Rodrigo Garcia (18%), according to a Datafolha poll on Thursday.
What does a outcome of the ballot.
Haddad has the backing of former São Paulo governor Geraldo Alckmin, a conservative Catholic who is now Lula’s running mate, who could open holes in São Paulo residents’ historical anti-petism and attract fewer ideological voters.
In total they are 1,627 positions to be filled in these electionsto which more than 156 million Brazilians are invited.
In addition to the President and Vice President of the Republic, the governors of the 27 states (including the Federal District of Brasilia), the 513-seat Chamber of Deputies and one-third of the 81-seat Senate, as well as the state legislative assemblies, will be elected.
In presidential and government elections a second round is scheduledOctober 30, when the candidates do not obtain an absolute majority of valid votes.
The terms of office are four years, excluding senators, eight.
Two thirds of the candidates are men.
The dispute over the Congress in a scenario of chronic fragmentation
The multiplicity of political groups does any attempt to control Congress is uphill and whoever wins the presidency will have to negotiate with the so-called “Centrao”, an informal bloc of a conservative nature on which governability in Brazil largely depends.
More than 10,000 candidates will seek a seat in the Chamber of Deputies and 241 in the Senate, the highest number since the early years of democracy in the late 1980s.
According to analysts, more than 85% of federal deputies and 20 of the 27 governors will seek re-election, with a high probability of success.
They will also try to repeat in office 13 of the 27 senators in the running, including former soccer star Romario, a candidate for the Bolsonarista Freedom Party (PL).
Brazilian politics is plagued by a chronic fragmentation – About twenty groups populate the Congress – but for the first time the parties will be able to group themselves into federations, which will have to remain united for at least four years.
Even so, it is difficult to predict the balance of forces that will take effect on January 1, 2023.
The left, with the PT in the lead, could grow from the current 121 seats to around 150, while the “Centrao” and the Bolsonarists will compete for the more conservative electorate, analysts say.
“The Centrao and Bolsonarist groups will join a fratricidal struggle for the remaining spaces“, wrote the political scientist Ricardo de Joao Braga on the website Congresso em Foco.
Of the over 28,000 candidates, the majority defines themselves as mestizo or black (50.3%), a former.
This boom is perhaps driven by another novelty of this election: for the distribution of public campaign funds to parties, every vote of women and black candidates will count for two, due to an electoral amendment to promote greater representation in parliament.
There is also local candidates with great symbolism.
Renata Souza, a black woman from the favelas, seen as the replacement for the murdered Marielle Franco on the front line in the fight against racism, appears at the regional assembly in Rio de Janeiro for re-election.
Source: AFP
Source: Clarin
