Lula and Bolsonaro faithfully reproduced the score they both had nationwide in Minas Gerais, reaffirming the state as the great thermometer of national elections – a title they’ve held since re-democratisation. Whoever wins there assumes the post of president.
In this first round of the 2022 elections, the PT received 48.4% of the vote and the current president, 43.2% in Brazil, 48.3% and 43.6% in Minas, respectively, with the gaps in tenth place. .
The diversity of its 853 municipalities makes it a kind of social and economic example of Brazil and, as a result, a portrait of electoral behavior. Passing from Vale do Jequitinhonha through Vale do Aço, Grande BH, Sul de Minas and Triângulo Mineiro, there are poor and wealthy, urban and rural, industrialized regions focusing on agribusiness and family farming, regions with similar characteristics to the macro regions of Africa. country.
In this first round, Lula won in the poorer north of the state, which also includes regions with geographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the northeastern semi-arid region – a region where PT won by a large margin against its rival.
Bolsonaro, on the other hand, won in the capital, Belo Horizonte, and regions close to the interior of São Paulo, as well as important places for agribusiness such as Unaí, Paracatu, Frutal, Araguari, Uberaba, and Uberlândia. He had an advantage over his rivals in areas similar to these, such as the interior of São Paulo and the Central-West.
Amazonas also determined the winner, but Minas has a more similar rate to the national vote and is demographically relevant, the second largest electoral college behind São Paulo. For example, if the state delivered The story of this election might have been different if in 2014 a significant majority of their votes had been against their former governor, Aécio Neves (PSDB).
Minas sometimes votes more with candidates on the left, sometimes more on the right.
This makes putting platforms together to win the hearts and minds of miners one of the main challenges of the pre-candidates for Palácio do Planalto. It was important for Fernando Collor de Mello to have Itamar Franco from Minas Gerais on the ticket, as was Lula with the help of José Alencar of Minas Gerais.
In this election, Lula (PT) allied with former mayor Alexandre Kalil (PSD), while governor Romeu Zema (Novo) did not want to formally support Bolsonaro.
Zema’s strategy worked and he was re-elected in the first round with 56.18% of the votes, using both Bolsonarista and “Lulema”. Now, for the second phase, the president must call the governor, with whom he has always had a good relationship, to try to vote in the state.
A similar situation to the situation of Minas Gerais was that of Ohio, the pendulum state for the presidential election in the United States, sometimes pointing one side and sometimes the other. Whoever leads the state from 1964 to 2016 wins the White House. The folklore continued until 2020, when Joe Biden lost to Donald Trump there but consistently won the national election.
Voting intent polls showed a greater advantage between the two than the five percentage points that came out of the polls. Much will be written about this, but the answer is probably also about income distribution. The main institutes are Datafolha and silk Work with a sample of more than 50% of up to two minimum wage earners – this number may be excessive. The number of evangelicals must be meager.
Below is a rounded version of valid votes nationally and in Minas Gerais over the last 33 years:
1989: Collor vs. Lula
Considering the national results in 1989, Fernando Collor de Mello was elected with 53% of the valid votes and Lula with 47%. In Minas Gerais, Collor won in the second round, receiving between 55% and 44% of the vote.
1994: FHC – Lula
Looking at the national results in 1994, Fernando Henrique Cardoso was elected with 54% of the valid votes and 27% of Lula. In Minas Gerais, the FHC took a 65% to 22% win in the first round.
1998: FHC – Lula
Looking at the national results in 1998, Fernando Henrique Cardoso was elected with 53% of the valid votes and 32% of Lula. In Minas Gerais, the FHC took a 56% to 28% win in the first round.
2002: Lula vs Serra
Considering the national results in 2002, Lula was elected with 61% of the valid votes and 39% over José Serra. In Minas Gerais, Lula won in the second round with 66% to 33% of the vote.
2006: Lula vs. Alckmin
Looking at the national results in 2006, Lula was elected with 61% of the valid votes and 39% over Geraldo Alckmin. In Minas Gerais, Lula won the second round with 65% to 35% of the vote.
2010: Dilma vs. Serra
Looking at the national results in 2010, Dilma Rousseff was elected with 56% of the valid votes and José Serra with 44%. In Minas Gerais, Dilma won in the second round with 58% to 42% of the vote.
2014: Dilma vs Aécio
In 2014, looking at the national results, Dilma Rousseff was elected with 52% of the valid votes and 48% over Aécio Neves. In Minas Gerais, Dilma won the second round with 52% to 48% of the vote.
source: Noticias
