Passed the first round of Presidential Elections from Brazil and Lula da Silva’s victory with 48% of the vote means there will be a ballot between the PT candidate and the current president, Jair Bolsonaro, who finished second with 43%, as no one has exceeded the threshold of 50% of the votes.
The second round will be on October 30, an instance that will be defined by the ability of both candidates to roughly convince 21% of the population who did not go to vote, as well as for what do the voters of Simone Tebet and Ciro Gomeswho finished third and fourth in this election.
Logic and history require it the candidate who wins in the first round should triumph in the second. In Brazil itself, this is what has happened in the last 20 years, from the victories of Lula (in 2002 and 2006) and Dilma Rousseff (in 2010 and 2014), to that of Bolsonaro himself, in 2018.
Even the polls before the first round showed how winner over Lula in a possible ballot with a wide advantagea figure to be taken with a grain of salt in view of Bolsonaro’s performance on Sunday, well above what was predicted by the polls.
A figure from Sunday’s elections is that the 20.94% of the population who did not go to vote not only exceeded the 20.3% recorded in 2018, but are also the the highest abstention since 1998.
Those 32.6 million Brazilians who did not go to the polls are a priori i main “hunt” for votes to add for both candidates, given the high polarization of the elections. In principle, the ruling party has a better chance of reaching these voters, as it has all the resources of the state.
The second source of votes to be seduced are those that will collect the other candidates and who will now have to opt for Lula or Bolsonaro, a total of 8.4% of the electorate where the 4% raised by Simone Tebet, of the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), and 3% by Ciro Gomes, of the Democratic Labor Party (PDL) stand out.
A centrist and former ally of Lula takes center stage
A superficial reading from the top of the ballot could conclude that Tebet’s votes will go directly into Bolsonaro’s coffers.
The proposal is not without logic: Tebet was like candidate of an emblematic “Centrao” party.that powerful bloc that manages much of Brazilian politics and supported the official candidate during his 4 years in government.
However, the presence of the former governor of São Paulo and loyal representative of the Brazilian bourgeoisie, Geraldo Alckmin, as a candidate for the vice-presidency in the PT ticket is a sign that the the sympathies of the center are at least divided.
A few hours after the election ended, Tebet said he had already made a decision on the ballot, but would make it known when the time was right. “Don’t expect my omission and make your decision soon“He urged his followers on Sunday evening.
What will happen to the votes of Ciro Gomes, meanwhile, is another stranger who defies initial impressions. As Lula’s former minister and candidate for the PDL, a party that formed a coalition with the PT, his electorate would in principle feel more sympathy for the former president before the ballot.
In a highly polarized scenario, Gomes, however, he devoted much of his campaign to attacking Lulato the point of forcing emblematic figures of the PDL, such as the singer Caetano Veloso, to come out publicly to detach themselves from their statements and support the candidate of the PT.
His strong grudge against Lula during the campaign raises doubts not only as to what decision he will make for the second round, but also their constituents.
For some analysts, some of the votes that Bolsonaro ended up getting and pushed him above what the polls indicated. he came from the Gomes electoratewhich appeared in the polls with 7% intention to vote e closed with 3%.
After the elections, Gomes said he has not yet decided whether to support some of the candidates in the second round or leave free choice to his constituents.
Source: Clarin
