The climate of confrontation and rivalry of the elections in Brazil marked the tension that has been experienced for months in the most populous country in the region. In some cases there have been personal violence between militants, as well as some deaths due to clashes between different political factions. Tense and conflictual atmosphere.
Paradoxically, the first round of elections was peaceful: the population voted calmly and serenely, with 20% absenteeism. It’s nice to remember that in the last campaign Lula was in prison and Bolsonaro in hospital with a stab.
The result of the recent elections denotes an extreme polarization where alternative options have diluted between Simone Tebet and Ciro Gómez, who must decide their support in the second round.
The dialectic in the oratory of the debates resulted in insulting the opponent with epithets (thief, genocide, fascist, convict) that were absent in Brazilian politics. This was the political spirit of another democratic time that permeated Ulises Guimarães. This election has as a background the thirteen years of the PT, the departure of Dilma, Lava Jato, the replacement with Temer and the current Bolsonaro government emerging as a right-wing force.
Structure
Now Bolsonarism was born to remain as a competitive political structure in light of the results obtained in these elections. An expressive presence in the Senate and in the deputies: having won eight governorates and increased its electoral flow compared to 2018. Before that it had to face the pandemic with 700,000 deaths and the economic and social crisis resulting from the devastating health phenomenon.
Current economic indicators are positive, inflation also lowers unemployment, the real strengthens, GDP growth is 3.5%. In a complex international context due to the invasion of Ukraine, with rising prices and consequent global inflation. Brazil, as an emerging country, is under the observation of the most important centers of world power.
In Latin America, this election is the number twelve after the recent elections in Colombia. Since 2019 in the region, the vote has changed the ruling party eleven times. But the second round was an unwanted goal for Lula. He got a 5% difference, but lost in São Paulo, Rio, Minas Gerais, three very important districts. The difference in its favor was reached in the north-east.
The election of the vice-presidential candidates marks a significant political signal. In the case of the PT, having chosen Geraldo Alckmin, a former PSDB candidate who lost to Lula, is a nod to the right and the business establishment, as Enrique Meirelles, former president of the Central Bank, added.
In the case of Bolsonaro, he elected the former Defense Minister, General Walter Braga Netto, as deputy. right hand of the president.
The campaign slogans were clearly linked to God, the country and the family. Also the corruption of the PT and the questioning of the electronic electoral system and the Supreme Electoral Tribunal. On the other hand, Lula put the emphasis on the social claim of his past management, which allowed thirty million people to get out of poverty.
The turning point in the political center is the hallmark of his electoral campaign in the first round. In the second round, he is forced to keep his lead and add more votes. He will also have to present his own government plan, of which he has so far spoken little. He gave only general criteria and signs of his previous administrations.
Bolsonaro must open negotiations with the relevant governors and offer proposals to voters that vary and increase the offer of their support for the second round. He takes advantage of the improvement in economic and social benefits, such as the decrease in unemployment. This opens up a new situation where there is an open ending for both the PT and the PL.
The polls
The polls deserve reflection. Sometimes it was a back and forth of statistics between winner and loser, as if it were another competition out of reality, trying to influence people’s decisions with margins that did not reflect what happened. Instead of measuring professionally, they have become partisan political tools.
This was the feeling when you talked to people related to PT or PL. Polls have become part of political action. They are not free. Those who pay them are probably looking for a better service. Voting remains an act of human freedom. The second round was open until October 30th.
For Argentina, the importance of the elections in Brazil is strategic. As a neighbor, as a partner in Mercosur, we wish the Brazilian people the best for the upcoming elections. Our understanding is a fundamental pillar for regional unity in peace and democracy.
* Former Argentine ambassador to Brazil, OAS and Spain. Director of the CEPEI
Source: Clarin
