There is no time to lose. Like Lula da Silva, President Jair Bolsonaro has already thrown his main swords claim the support of the center-right leadership that was excluded in the elections. Beyond the campaign itself, in which he will tour the country, the president exhibits a powerful arsenal powerful enough to force those agreements.
It could be the right’s performance above expectations in the country’s populous south-east particularly advantageous for the president who has greatly expanded his legislative power.
Likewise, his former Minister of Infrastructure, Tarcísio Gomes de Freitas, leads the fight for the second round in the powerful state of São Paulo with great possibilities; controls Rio de Janeiro and the governor of the second most populous state in the country, Minas Gerais, has expressed his support though the struggle for mining favor is the axis of fierce competition.
“Many politicians will coldly assess which side is strength when it comes to negotiating,” a source in the judiciary told this envoy. “That’s where they will look alone, here the pragmatism and ambition belong to everyone“, To add.
Lula da Silva, meanwhile, has already made contact with out-of-competition matches. Center-right senator Simone Tebet, a lawyer in her fifties, a fervent anti-abortionist and who came in third place, had indicated before the elections that he could call his supporters to vote for Lula.
An approach that would be consistent with his persistent attack in all debates and forums against Bolsonaro’s four-year administration. that reproaches his machismothe violence of his comments and the unresolved economic problems in the country.
Radical advancement towards the center
The PT strategy is consistent with the idea of deepen without hesitation a “more radical advance towards the political center” in a crime that also produces an approach with leaders aligned with Bolsonaro.
The substance of this position is the certainty that Lula, even if it is not clear with what difference, will end up winning the presidency on October 30, namely I would have the pen. So, it doesn’t seem difficult for them to try to play in the Bolsonarian Southeast as well. to the PT only 1.8 million votes were missing win in the first round.
However, on one or the other vereda, the negotiations here are not just about programmatic coincidences. When Lula in Sao Paulo, before the elections, spoke more about the ballot than about last Sunday’s appointment, convinced that there was a great possibility of not reaching him on the first attempt, he suggested that in the second campaign he would overtake the territory of political parties. . who did not join his coalition.
It was clear to everyone that what he was talking about was distribute slices of powerr, among other levels in the cabinet of ministers. In a more advanced view, this implies important political adjustments if the center-right becomes, apparently, a very active part of a possible next PT government.
“The PT has little doubt that they will win. His concern is to do it with enough force to dissolve the bad taste of the first round, ”a South American diplomat active in Brasilia told this envoy. “But that seems unlikely“, To add.
Lula’s strategists have defined that the campaign for the second round, despite Sunday’s results, should essentially focus Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and finally Minas Gerais. The Northeast, where there is a huge low-income mass, I kept it under control and from there came most of their votes. The south is elusive and strengthens Bolsonaro.
A duel of 70 to 30
The political scientist Andrei Roman, CEO of Atlas Intelthe electoral institute, which also made a mistake on Sunday, but less mistaken, states that in its calculations the former president Da Silva has “a 70% chance of winning the ballot, compared to Bolsonaro’s 30% chance.
AtlasIntel predicted Saturday, before the elections, that Lula would win with 50.3% of the vote against 41.1% of the president. The results were 48.43% and 43.2%, respectively. Far away but not too far.
Romano, interviewed by the portal metropolis, argues that it is correct to go to the vote in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro but doubts Minas Gerais. “It is absolutely correct for Lula and also for Bolsonaro.
In São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro Lula can arrive better results if better he mobilizes his electorate to leave the house. In Minas Gerais, however, it is different because there is an elected government will campaign for Bolsonaro and this is very dangerous for Lula ”.
The expert claims that the Minas Gerais electorate is historically unstable and difficult to predict behavior because it has a little from the northeast and a little from the southeast.
But the analyst marks another detail, to the governor Romeu Zema Netocritical ally of the president, it suits him to campaign for Bolsonaro, “out of conviction but out of political sense because it ends up being a pre-campaign for the presidency in 2026This is very dangerous for Lula ”.
However, this is where the most important swords of the PT go, second Folha of San Paolo. It is assumed that the inclinations of Governor Zuma, re-elected this Sunday, may be distorted. It is interesting for the costs that such an alliance with a businessman would entail. firmly seated to the right of the political arc.
Previous talks had progressed to such an extent that the nascent agreement had taken the nickname of “Luzema”. All very secret, including Zema’s passage to the governorship. But this was before Sunday’s electoral and political coup.
“Today, members of the campaign leadership claim that Lula has been duped. Now the idea is to propose an informal agreement to Zema, according to which he would support Bolsonaro without making a passionate campaign for the president. “say the PT sources quoted by the San Pablo newspaper.
Brasilia, special correspondent
ap
Source: Clarin
