Former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva appears to be establishing himself as the favorite for the second round of elections in Brazil, in a fierce duel with current president Jair Bolsonaro, seeking re-election. But the chips in this political game are in full swing and for now any bet can be risky.
As alliances are forged for October 30, the first poll since Sunday’s elections showed an advantage of up to 10 percentage points for the leader of the Workers’ Party. But analysts are recommending caution, as the public opinion advisers’ latest predictions were finally far from the true result.
According to the poll by the Ipec agency, released late Wednesday evening, Lula would get 51% of the votes, against 43% of the far right Bolsonaro.
But Brazilian legislation only takes into account valid votes, without nulls and empty spaces, e in that scenario Lula would get 55% against 45% of the president of the Liberal Party (PL).
In the first round of the presidential elections, last Sunday, the former union leader who ruled Brazil from 2003 to 2008 won with 48.4% of the valid votes and the far-right leader finished second with 43.2% .
The rest of the votes were split among ten other presidential candidates, who garnered no more than 4% each. Many of them have already expressed their support for Lula or Bolsonaro for the second round.
But this new poll comes in between doubts and skepticism of analysts and ordinary citizens. Polls prior to the first round underestimated Bolsonaro’s strength, giving Lula an advantage of up to 14 points.
And in the former president’s circle, some were even enthusiastic about the possibility of a first-round victory, for which he needed 50% plus one of the votes.
Bolsonaro has criticized the polls since they started showing Lula as the favorite and accused them of trying to manipulate voters. His allies, combative like him, took advantage of the pollsters’ slip to propose measures to limit the actions of these companies. And also investigate and fine them.
The IPEC, which interviewed 2,000 people between Monday and Wednesday in 129 cities in Brazil, also measured the rejection rate of candidates and determined that the 50% of Brazilian voters assure that they will not vote for Bolsonaro in any way in the second round. It’s a 40% say the same about Lula.
Decisive supports
The candidates who ranked third and fourth in the elections, center-right senator Simone Tebet and center-left leader Ciro Gomes – former minister in the first Lula government and then tough opponent -, have already declared their support for the first president al second round.
Tebet, however, was clear. She will support Lula because, she said, what is at stake in Brazil “is democracy”. But she has set the conditions.
The senator admitted that she could also accompany the president in an electoral act. But before taking the stage with him, she will wait for the PT to accept him a 5-point program on education, social rights and women’s rights, which were on the platform of the now former candidate.
Also, asked for changes in Lula’s economic approach, with a sharp turn towards the center.
“The economy has changed and it is necessary to evolve in this sense. former president and the official announcement of his approval.
Lula, in fact, has long since shown a turn towards the center and has accumulated a history of winks at the banking sector and the market.
Lula also gained key support from former President Fernando Henrique Cardoso, a highly respected figure in the political and economic establishment.
This support carries strong political and symbolic weight: Cardoso and Lula were political adversaries for years until in 2021 they came together again on the basis of their coincidences in defense of democracy and their discrepancies with Bolsonaro.
Wink at the economist
Lula has also added big names from the financial scene to her ranks. Economists Edmar Bacha, Pedro Malan and Persio Arida have said they will vote for Lula in the second round.
They thus joined Armínio Fraga, who was president of the central bank in Cardoso’s second term, who had already declared his inclination on Tuesday.
As published on Thursday by the G1 website of the Globo chain, the four economists expressed in a statement: “We will vote for Lula in the second round; our expectation is responsible management of the economy”.
Malan was finance minister in the Cardoso government and president of the central bank under Itamar Franco. Together with him, Persio Arida and Edmar Bacha were the creators of the Real Plan, recalled Globo.
Support for Bolsonaro
According to the IPEC survey, Bolsonaro continues to have a very large advantage among evangelicals (61% versus Lula’s 31%) and among higher income groups.
The former president, on the other hand, is the favorite among Catholic voters: 59% against 36%.
But Bolsonaro also launches his goals and has already gathered consensus that will be decisive for the ballot.
The governors of Brasilia, Ibaneis Rocha, and of Paraná, Ratinho Júnior, made official their participation in the Bolsonist campaign.
On Tuesday the heads of government of San Pablo, Rodrigo García; Minas Gerais, Romeu Zema, and Rio de Janeiro, Claudio Castro. These three states have the main electoral districts in the country.
Castro belongs to the Liberal Party, like Bolsonaro. Zema is a member of the Novo party, a liberal party and close to the president’s ideas, especially in economic matters. Both were re-elected on Sunday in the first round.
García, on the other hand, also aspired to re-election in San Pablo, but was excluded from the race last Sunday. The winner was the Bolsonarist Tarcísio Gomes de Freitas, with 42.5%, who will play the second round against Fernando Haddad (PT), who obtained 35.4%.
Bolsonaro also has the backing of former judge Sergio Moro, who put Lula da Silva in jail for 580 days for corruption cases, and later served as Minister of Justice for the current president.
Source: Clarin
