In a month, on November 8, the United States will go to the polls with a close vote that will not only define the future legislature and governors of key states, but also will mark the fate of Joe Biden’s governmentcivil rights and Trumpism, which is still alive and trying to win back the White House.
In the midterm elections, two years after Biden’s inauguration in the most controversial trial in US history, citizens will vote for the renewal of all their deputies and a third of the senators.
There are also elections to elect 36 governors, some in electorally important states such as Florida and Texas.
In the House of Representatives, the Republican Party is five seats away from winning the majority, thus taking it away from the Democrats. They are now tied in the Senate, with 50 Democratic and 50 Republican senators, even though Vice President Kamala Harris breaks the tie.
Until a few months ago, Democrats were very complicated: Americans watched a hesitant Biden, too focused on the war in Ukraine that skyrocketed their fuel and saw their salaries vanish into inflation not seen in 40 years.
Traditionally, midterms are elections in which Americans judge how the president’s work is going in its first phase, and everything indicated that the Democrats would be hit hard at the polls and that they would lose control of both legislative chambers.
Republicans were convinced that, as usual, the opposition would triumph in these elections and were already preparing to make life impossible for Biden in the last period of his term with permanent blockades in an opposition congress.
Effects of the sentence on abortion
But in June a controversial court ruling marked the electoral campaign: the Court of Cassation, with a conservative majority, eliminated the protection offered by the federal government to the right to abortion (it eliminated the Roe Vs Wade ruling that guaranteed it) and this it made a large part of the population, including moderate Republicans, fear that it was only the first indication that these and other civil rights acquired years ago were beginning to be curtailed.
The court’s decision (contrary to what 60% of Americans think) has sparked demonstrations and debates and made activists Democrats, many of whom disappointed with Biden’s performancemobilizes much more than expected to go out and vote.
At the same time, due to the White House’s decision to free up oil reserves, the price of fuel has been controlled and returned to its normal paths and inflation, while still high, appears to have reached a ceiling.
what the polls say
With this new landscape, polls today indicate that Democrats are entering the final stretch in better shape than earlier this year, driven by a return to independent votersan increase in President Biden’s image and increased enthusiasm for the vote among supporters of the right to abortion, according to a poll revealed this week by the Wall Street newspaper.
But Republicans still have a chance if they can keep the debate focused on the economy and what has been the highest inflation of the past four decades.
Nearly two-thirds of registered voters say the economy is in poor shape, a higher percentage than the Journal’s latest poll in March. Nearly two-thirds say inflation pushes them out of their homes to vote.
Democrats have a slight lead over Republicans, 47% to 44%, which is within the poll’s margin of error. Republicans led by five points in March.
The return of the Democrats comes from greater support among independents, women and young people. Even black and Hispanic voters, who have traditionally strongly favored Democrats, support the party more strongly than they did earlier this year.
Among independents, usually the key to victory in close elections, more voters now prefer a Democratic candidate in Congress over a Republican – from 38 percent to 35 percent. In March, Republicans led the independents by 12 percentage points.
Air for the Democrats
“In the mid-term elections in the United States, the ruling party often loses seats because those who support the opposition party are more motivated to participate,” he said. Clarione Matthew Kerbel, professor of electoral trends and political communication at the University of Villanova.
“However, since the court ruling on abortion in June, we have seen an increase in enthusiasm on the part of Democrats and above all an increase in the register of voters among women and young people. Polls suggest the election could now be seen as a cross-party election rather than a referendum on the Biden administration. This gives the Democrats a chance, “she said.
For the expert, there are two groups of forces in tension to define the competition: “On the one hand, inflation and the low popularity of Biden are driving the Republicans. On the other hand, the right to abortion and the consequences of the January 6 uprising are supporting the Democrats. The polls are close, as are the democratic margins in Representations and the Senate “.
The result, added Kerbel, “will largely depend on which party is able to mobilize its base the most. At this point, the House and the Senate could go either way.”
Donald Trump’s future
Another peculiarity of these elections is that they not only concern the current president but also his predecessor, Donald Trump.
The tycoon has supported hundreds of candidates in the Republican primary and many have won and will compete in November. Most of these are extremists and inexperienced, which also allows Democrats to campaign more aggressively and seduce more moderates and independents.
For Kerbel, “Trumpism is still alive. We saw this in the former president’s influence on the selection of candidates for the Republican primary. However, this has left Republicans with candidates in several races who find it difficult to expand their appeal beyond traditional GOP voters. This also contributes to the fact that we are facing very tight elections ”.
In the middle of his legal scandals, but with unwavering popularity among his millions of supporters, Trump is flirting with the 2004 White House rush, as is Ron DeSantis, the Republican governor of Florida who is looking to renew his term in a month and is leading the way. rush for now polls. Trumpism and the Republicans will also host their chips in the November 8 election.
Washington, correspondent
CB
Source: Clarin
