The United States will not soon be able to supply Ukraine, as it has so far, with the sophisticated equipment essential for its defense against Russia, as its reserves are reaching its limitsespecially in terms of ammunition.
Washington has become, by far, the largest arms supplier Ukraine since Russia launched its invasion on February 24, with over $ 16.8 billion in military assistance since that date.
But US stockpiles of some equipment are “reaching the minimum levels necessary for warfare and training plans,” and restoring arms stocks to pre-invasion levels could take years, wrote Mark Cancian in a recent analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Washington “is learning lessons” from the conflict over ammunition needs in a very powerful war that is “much bigger” than expected, said a US military officer who asked for anonymity.
US arms companies were forced to drastically cut production in the 1990s, when the US cut military spending after the collapse of the Soviet Union. As a result, the industry collapsed and only a handful of manufacturers survived.
Now the US government must persuade the industry to reopen assembly lines e relaunch the production of weapons such as Stinger surface-to-air missiles, not produced since 2020.
Some US-supplied war equipment has become an icon of the war in Ukraine, such as the Javelin anti-tank missile, widely used by Kiev forces to stop the Russian advance towards the capital, and also the HIMARS rockets, an artillery that plays a key role in the counter-offensive against Moscow in the east and south of the country.
Matters
But ammunition reserves for HIMARS, which launch GPS-guided rockets known as GMLRS and with a range of more than 80 km, are in short supply.
“If the US sent a third of that inventory to Ukraine (as it did with the Javelins and the Stingers), Ukraine would receive 8,000 to 10,000 rockets. They could last several months, but when they run out, there are no alternatives. “said Cancian, who worked in the arms supply industry for the US government.
“Production is around 5,000 per year. But despite the fact that the US is working to increase that figure, since a budget has recently been allocated for this purpose, this could take years,” the expert said. , adding that some older teams can help bridge the gap.
The United States has already supplied about 8,500 Javelina missiles to Kiev, but the production of this weapon which has become a symbol of Ukraine’s resistance is only about 1,000 per year.
Washington ordered $ 350 million worth of these missiles in May, but it will take several more years for supplies to be restored.
According to official Pentagon statistics, the United States has also supplied more than 800,000 NATO standard 155mm artillery shells to Kiev, or three-quarters of the total delivered to all Western Alliance countries.
The number of missiles that Washington has delivered “is probably close to the limit that the United States is willing to give its combat capabilities without risk,” Cancian said.
The challenge of increasing production
US production of such artillery is currently about 14,000 shells per month, but the Pentagon has announced plans to increase this figure to 36,000 in three years. This could only reach an annual production of 432,000, less than half of what was shipped to Ukraine in seven months.
Production of the US defense industry is acceleratingThis was stated this week by Laura Cooper, a senior Defense Department official responsible for Russia and Ukraine.
“The United States will continue to support the Ukrainian people and provide the security assistance they need to defend themselves for as long as necessary,” he said.
Source: AFP
CB
Source: Clarin
