The latest coup in Burkina Faso was marred by images of young people waving Russian flags in the streets of the capital, Ouagadougou – what must have delighted the Kremlin.
Although there were very few flags, it has sparked speculation that there may be some Russian involvement in the events that led to Captain Ibrahim Traoré’s seizure of power in the country under siege of mounting jihadist violence.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, an oligarch close to Russian President Vladimir Putin and the founder of the Wagner Group, a mercenary organization operating in several African countries, congratulated the leader of the young junta, calling him “a truly worthy and brave son of his homeland.”
“The people of Burkina Faso were under the yoke of the colonialists, who robbed the people, played their despicable tricks, trained them, supported the bandit gangs and inflicted great suffering on the local population.” former colonial power.
Those who welcomed the coup in the West African country not only waved Russian flags but also attacked French institutions, including the embassy.
The violence created unrest in the region and once again demonstrated the strength of resentment against the French in many of the country’s former African colonies.
For nearly a decade, France has tried to help armies in the Sahel region, a semi-arid piece of land south of the Sahara desert that includes Burkina Faso, to fight jihadist militants, some of whom are linked to al-Qaeda or the terrorist group. state islam.
But he recently withdrew from neighboring Mali, which is also a former colony, after severing ties with the local military junta, which is increasingly accused of turning to Russia for help in fighting militants.
Sergei Markov, a former Kremlin adviser, was more direct in his words: “Our people helped the new leader. [de Burkina Faso]. Yet another African country will switch from cooperating with France to an alliance with Russia.
For geopolitical analyst Samuel Ramani, this marks a shift from Russia’s usual response to political instability in the region.
“In previous coups, Russia has tried to position itself as an accidental beneficiary of regime change,” says Ramanai of the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), a defense and security think tank.
“This time Russia is much more proactive in supporting the coup, leading to speculation that Russia is playing a coordinating role,” adds the expert, author of the book. Russia in Africa.
This points to the Wagner Group, although Russia has consistently denied any involvement of the mercenaries with the state, and there is no evidence of direct Russian involvement.
Shortly after taking power, Captain Traoré made it clear that he wanted to work with new international partners to fight Islamic militant groups operating in the country since 2015.
Many thought he meant the Russians.
But by focusing on defeating the jihadists, he says he’s also open to working with the United States or any other country that wants to help improve the country’s insecurity.
The US is holding a major annual counter-terrorism training exercise for West African nations – but this year both Mali and Burkina Faso have not participated in the so-called Operation Flint.
Noting that the Mali junta has been very hostile towards Europeans and Americans since it came to power in 2020, Ramani says, “I think Burkina Faso wants to avoid the trap that Mali has fallen into.”
“They are now completely dependent and taken over by the Russian state,” he says.
“Once the Russians enter, they can’t get them out. The same thing happened in the Central African Republic.”
The Wagner Group has been operating in the Central African Republic since 2018, and its members have been accused of human rights abuses, including mass killings, torture, enforced disappearances and rape.
presence of mercenaries
It can be difficult to hold groups like Wagner accountable, says Sorcha MacLeod, associate professor at the University of Copenhagen in Denmark and chair of the UN Working Group on the Use of Mercenaries.
“When these mercenary representatives are there, the state can become involved in an armed conflict without being an official party to the conflict.”
“And then you have reasonable deniability… and of course, that has huge implications when it comes to responsibility and accountability.”
What’s more, even its presence can have the opposite effect, he says.
“When such actors are drawn into armed conflict, the conflict is protracted and the risk of war crimes increases.”
“The reality is that these organizations have no incentive to end the conflict. They are financially motivated.”
The US agrees, saying that Russian mercenaries are exploiting natural resources in the Central African Republic, Mali and Sudan to finance Moscow’s war in Ukraine.
The US ambassador to the UN, who issued a clear warning last week, said it was a high price to pay for Africa.
“Instead of being a transparent partner and increasing security, Wagner exploits client states that pay for oppressive security services – in gold, diamonds, timber and other natural resources – this is part of the Wagner Group business model,” said Linda Thomas-Greenfield. . at the UN Security Council briefing.
We know that these ill-gotten gains were used to finance Moscow’s war machine in Africa, the Middle East and Ukraine.”
All of this might explain Captain Traoré’s reluctance to put all his eggs in Russia’s basket.
“I think Traoré is trying to show that he can hold his bets and try to balance all sides,” Ramani says.
“But of course any cooperation with Russia will almost certainly be a death sentence for France and the West. The Americans and the French will not coexist with the Russians.”
“This is Traoré’s dilemma – does he side with Russia? Or does he risk not having a real outside backer.”
But the anger displayed by Burkina Faso youth shows that the new junta leader’s priority must be tackling the jihadist threat.
The regional leader noted this week that the country is “on the verge of collapse” due to insecurity.
But there are doubts about how effective the Wagner Group fighters will be in Burkina Faso.
Although members of the group have been active in Mali for less than a year, the early signs are not looking good as jihadist attacks are on the rise and they are accused of human rights abuses.
The country is returning to the epicenter of the crisis in the Sahel and has recorded the highest number of deaths from militant attacks so far this year.
Also, 2022 will be the deadliest year for Burkina Faso and Mali since the rebellion began.
“Wagner is good at creating chaos. But as a fighting force he struggles, especially in new and hostile terrain,” says Ramani.
Still, he believes that the junta in the Sahel region may choose to work with Russian mercenaries, as France failed to stop the spread of violence.
Also, Russia is a much less demanding foreign ally.
“Russia is seen as a stand-alone partner in terms of human rights and democracy,” says Ramani.
“It doesn’t even try to impose its lifestyle on you – and this is viewed as highly desirable by so-called autocrats and kleptocrats.”
– This text was published at https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/internacional-63200886.
source: Noticias
