When Kiev and several Ukrainian cities are undergoing a missile barrage to avenge Vladimir Putin after the humiliation of blowing up the Kerch bridge in Crimea on his birthday, Andrey SchelčkovRussian historian of the prestigious Academy of Sciences, analyzes the war with Ukraine. He believes that the Russian president is today “a hostage of the security forces”.
The tactical bomb may not be used. “If someone does not press the ‘red button’, which is necessary to make it work, putin’s power ends Right now. If he gives the order for the attack and someone in the military leadership is not compliantit is the end ”, warns the historian.
Andrey Schelchkov is a senior researcher at the Universal Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences. He studied at Moscow University (Kamonosov) and received his PhD from the USSR Academy of Sciences in 1989.
He is a specialist in the history of Chile and Bolivia, editor of the Latin American Historical Almanac magazine, and author of numerous books, such as The Social Utopia in Latin America in the 19th Century, The Political History of Chile in the 20th Century and The Regime of Socialism of State in Bolivia 1936-1939. with perfect Spanish very porteñospoke to Clarin from Russia.
The partial mobilization was a failure, “But it is a disaster that affects every family”.
the recruits they have no uniforms or weapons as in the Falklands War. Nor training. The protagonists they are the poorest in society, in the most remote regions. The young people of the cities flee to neighboring countries not to participate in the call.
A war “between toads and spiders”, the regime’s elite, began when for the first time the Russians felt attacked in the Crimea, which they regard as their own territory. But no one speaks against Putin, who it still maintains popular support.
-Putin is losing power in Russia. What are people in Russia saying about the Kerch bridge explosion? And what the effect will be if Ukraine advances on Crimea?
-Obviously it’s a slap in the face for Putin on his birthday. Which has a greater psychological effect because it really hinders the transit and supply of troops in the south of Ukraine, which is the easiest route through Crimea, because the railway is already up and running and the bridge’s only track has been damaged. Of course there are many rumors, conspiracy theories, according to which it was an act of the Russian secret services themselves, to play their game, to induce Putin to revenge.
This is all very superficial. I’m not interested in analyzing it. The important thing is that the Russians, for the first time, really feel attacked on their own territory, because all this war up to now has been taking place exclusively on Ukrainian territory. Now the war has come to his home. Especially after the start of partial mobilization. But it’s disastrous in its effects, in the way they are doing it.
The battle of the toads and spiders
-Because?
It demonstrates an absolute inability of the authorities to carry out the tasks they are entrusted with. It is a total disaster, which reaches every family. It is an organizational disaster. People are in the countryside, without shops, without heating, without clothes. Everything is a pharaonic disaster.
People can’t explain why this army doesn’t even have uniforms for the guys they’re recruiting. Not to mention the winter clothes, because winter is coming. And, of course, the Ukrainian army has more momentum right now. Emotionally and morally he is far superior to the Russian army.
-What role will winter play?
-I always say that military luck is changeable. The coming winter will hamper not only the actions of Russian troops, but also Ukrainian ones. So we are really facing a technical draw, when the Russians still don’t have enough strength to continue with Putin’s goals. And on the other hand, we don’t really know – and the Ukrainians don’t tell us – how many forces they have to put pressure on Russian troops. So for me it’s more of a draw, with little technical tactical progress from Ukraine.
– And the internal situation?
-The internal situation is what worries the states most. The battle between spiders and toads (in Russia) has already begun, as they say here, between different branches, different camps, different staffs, from army security, from influence groups, that the only thing they are looking for is the culprit .
“Nobody speaks against Putin”
-Do people speak openly against Putin and the war, even on official television?
-No, no one ever speaks against Putin. Nor do I think they will speak out against Putin. Except for the opposition, which is all abroad and eliminated within the country. But there are no voices within the leadership circle. At least these voices are not heard. Of course, behind closed doors, very closed, they can talk about different things. But formally there is still no such division of the elite that it could be, we could say that this or that group is against the power of the dictator.
-Because?
-Because there is still a high level of popular support. For this whole group, this whole elite, this whole circle of rulers, as Putin’s regime’s Marxist “ruling classes” put it, Putin is their best and only object of security. It is the only thing that defends them from people, from people who, at any moment, can be angry and a people who are uncontrollable. And so the repression is harsh in Russia. But once the general sentiment of public opinion, of the people, of the masses turns against the authorities, the regime always falls. So it was with the Soviet Union and without repression.
the nuclear bomb
-Russia is discussing the possibility of using the tactical nuclear bomb, as President Joe Biden warned, is it not? And under what circumstances would they use it?
– Look, there is a lot of speculation about the nuclear bomb. There are crazy people, of course. It is Putin’s last resort. Now it is not about the global nuclear conflict, but about the use of the tactical nuclear weapon.
The tactical bomb is not as dangerous as it is thought. But it is a red line for the military. And it is clear that the United States and its allies have clearly implied that they will strike a very strong blow against Putin personally and not with nuclear weapons but with conventional weapons.
And on the other hand, it is not possible to do it very quickly, because the use of the nuclear weapon depends on many people. And so for Putin it is worse. It is better not to use it than not to know if someone will not respect your command to use it. You understand? Because once someone doesn’t press the “red button”, which is necessary for it to work, Putin’s power ends right now. If he gives the order for the attack and someone in the military leadership doesn’t execute it, that’s the end. And maybe he doesn’t adapt because he wants to live and let his family live, which is not in suicide syndrome.
A military but social mobilization
-They have already had a partial mobilization, which was a disaster, do you think you can ask for a total mobilization? And what effect would it have?
-No, no, no, no, there is no mobilization. If they have no weapons! And there are so many videos we’re seeing, that they even have machine guns and all of those things. The sidearms they have are old, dirty and non-functional. It is a disaster.
-Who was mobilized?
-This part of the mobilization, among other things, has touched people in areas of the country with less income, with greater social tension. One thing that struck me a lot, from Moscow, from St. Petersburg, from the big cities, many people are hiding, running away. There is a real exodus of young people from the country to neighboring countries.
But in the cities of great economic depression in the interior of the country, where there are no jobs, there are no prospects, there were comments from women, wives, people mobilized, who said: “Well, now don’t” do nothing . He is drunk everyday. He at least he will make money in the war. And if he dies, we will have a decent pension. “He Imagine how far he goes. And there, yes, the mobilization has no problems, people go there. The problem is the big cities, politically very important.
The tension between the military and the services
-What is the climate like between the Russian army and the intelligence services when they are losing the battle on the ground?
-The relations between what was the KGB and which is now called FSB or Secret Service and the army, with the professional military, have never been “clear skies”, because there were tensions and a very deep hatred.
And now it has increased a lot because we are in the phase of finding who is to blame. That everything went wrong because the secret services gave Putin bad predictions and bad advice. Or because the military did not know how to wage war as Putin had ordered.
And of course it is now very easy to indict, accuse the military, because they stole everything. It’s true: they are ‘jet’ (sic) all. True, there is no doubt.
Nobody here doubts that the army is also in dire shape. Nobody doubts it. But, at the same time, there is no other army. And Putin understands that the secret services are not going to the front. So he tries to find a balance between these two forces, with a certain rivalry.
But to maintain internal power, to avoid a possible “palace coup”, it is very important for Putin to continue with the security services. I would say that already at this moment he is hostage – instead of being an independent actor – of the forces that guarantee his life, his existence and his power. And it is safety.
Paris, correspondent
ap
Source: Clarin
