Not only the charisma or strategy of both candidates will define the next president of Brazil: in the final duel this Sunday between the far-right president Jair Bolsonaro and the social democrat Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will also influence other variables.
The most influential factor, according to analysts consulted by the AFP, will be that of rejection.
Brazil divided in two: anti-Bolsonarism and anti-peteism, alluding to the Workers’ Party (PT), led by Lula, the favorite at the polls.
50% reject the president and 46% the former president, according to the most recent DataFolha opinion study.
1- Polarization
Four years ago Bolsonaro won at the polls, arousing contempt and fear of the socialist left of the PT, which ruled from 2003 to 2016 with Lula (2003-2010) and Dilma Rousseff (2011-2016).
Now he arouses similar emotions in a section of the electorate that rejects his administration and his ultra-conservative thinking.
“The Brazilian political system coexists with two forces of denial: anti-petism and anti-bolsonarism, which will decide the elections,” says Mayra Goulart, an expert in comparative politics at the University of Rio de Janeiro.
The former took root in the elites and then became popular, turning into an anti-left sentiment with economic and moral connotations.
Anti Bolsonarism is primarily a consequence of the management of the pandemic. Nearly 690,000 people died in the middle of the The president’s contempt for the victims and those who asked for vaccines.
“In 2018 there was no anti-Bolsonarism, but there was anti-petism and an election against everything and everyone,” says sociologist and political scientist Paulo Baía. “Bolsonaro embodied that anti-system character. He won the elections,” he adds.
But in this contest the least resisted wave “will win the election,” he says.
In the first round, around 32 million Brazilians abstained from voting, 21% of those eligible. The number is five times the advantage of six million that Lula obtained over Bolsonaro in the vote of 2 October (48.4 against 43.2%).
2- Abstention
“Abstention will be crucial,” says Oliver Stuenkel, a professor at the Getulio Vargas Foundation. Whoever mobilizes more consensus among the abstentionists could tip the scales, even if this does not depend exclusively on the campaigns.
Many voters, especially the poorest, stopped voting because they did not have the means of transport to get from their remote homes to polling stations.
For this reason, for this Sunday’s ballot in some cities, a “free pass”: You are allowed to travel for free on buses, trains and subways to vote.
And although voting is mandatory, the fine for not voting is 3.5 reais (0.5 US cents), less than the cost of a return ticket.
“The bigger the abstention, the worse it will be for Lula, because most of those who abstained are from the PT,” says Stuenkel.
3- The economy
The largest economy in Latin America has begun to recover from the crisis left by the pandemic. Unemployment fell to 8.7% between June and September and GDP growth of 2.8% is forecast for this year.
However, 9.5 million people are still out of work, and the majority of the 215 million population are facing inflation that is hitting many countries at the same time. Over the past 12 months, inflation has reached 7.17%, with a downward trend.
Meanwhile, 33.1 million people are hungryaccording to the Brazilian Network for Food Sovereignty and Security Research.
“The economy, with inflation, accelerated unemployment due to the pandemic, has contributed to the discouragement of many families. We have a legion of children and young people excluded from the social process for lack of education during the pandemic,” says Paulo Baía.
Lula has focused his campaign on job creation, fighting hunger and raising wages, and in recent weeks Bolsonaro has claimed his economic reactivation policy.
4- Family and religion
However, according to other experts, the “key issue” for a sector that supports Bolsonaro will not be the economy, “but issues related to social conservatism such as family, Christianity, tradition”, which they believe are at stake. if Lula won, explains Professor Stuenkel.
“If the PT wins, it would show that the biggest concern of the population was the economy,” adds the expert.
But if the winner is Bolsonaro “it will be a sign that social conservatism is the issue considered by the population as the most important”, concludes Stuenkel.
Source: AFP
CB
Source: Clarin
