When I write and deliver these comments to the editorial office, the election results have not yet been disclosed. What is now clear is that:
1) More than 130 million Brazilians vote in the second round;
2) that the difference between winner and loser will not be significant;
3) that those who vote for Jair Bolsonaro do not believe he is a “liar” (as Lula accused him in the debates) and those who vote for Lula da Silva do not believe that he is a “thief” (as Bolsonaro stated in those same televised events);
4) that the religious theme has – and will have – a very important weight in the present and future politics of Brazil;
5) that the first minorities in Parliament – both in the Chamber of Deputies and in that of the Senators – will be in the hands of the center-left and the right (already decided in the first round);
6) that Bolsonaroism has taken root in the three most industrialized states – São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Minas Gerais – and that Lula da Silva continues to be the most popular leader in the Northeast.
The most important thing is that Brazilian democracy has consolidated and so on the future president will have to rule from the center and avoid extremes both right and left. The current economic course will be ratified, despite the political and ideological styles.
Brazil is an established nation, which will maintain the central guidelines of its foreign policy.
The two-way connection
Here is the great challenge for Argentina. The Argentine-Brazilian relationship – advanced decisively between 1985 and 2011, slowed down between 2011 and 2019 and stagnated in the last 3 years – has a great opportunity to reactivate and boost the regional integration project which must cover not only the four original members of Mercosur, but all South American countries.
The new Brazilian president will take office on January 1, 2023 and the new Argentine president on December 10, 2023. That is, the alleged existing conflicts and / or coincidences will only be a problem for a few months.
The great opportunity to de-ideologize the bilateral bond It will be a new synthesis that incoming governments could propose in 2023.
Argentina and Brazil are like France and Germany in the European Union, we are the heart and engine of our subcontinent and together we represent 68% of the regional GDP.
We are both “major non-NATO allies of the United States”, we have negotiated and signed the free trade agreement with the European Union and we have China as our main trading partner.
And above all, being the only two countries in the region with nuclear programs, we have freed humanity from a risk linked to this technology that can be produced at these latitudes (unlike all other regions of the world). We have both given up on the ability to build nuclear weapons, having the technology to do so.
When these lines are published, the election episode will be history. What remains is a great common mission for the future.
* Diego Guelar, former ambassador to the US, EU, Brazil and China
Source: Clarin
