In his first speech after winning the elections, President-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva told the international community, “Brazil is back, Brazil is too big to be reduced to this sad role of pariah in the world.” Even before taking office, Lula plans to go abroad.
But the next president will be faced with a huge challenge: in a year of possible international recession, war, nuclear threat and climate collapse, Lula will have to return to finding a place in the world for Brazil.
Restoring Brazil’s international image will take much more than just the election result if democratic governments this Sunday, with the end of the Bolsonaro era, sighed a sigh of relief and within minutes gave the new president a “welcome back” signal. It will neither be automatic nor obvious for the country to regain the position it occupied before the advent of the far right.
With a deeply tarnished image, the country will henceforth carry a permanent distrust. Also, in many of the international affairs, the position that Brazil has left has been occupied by others who would not be willing to cede power and hero to the country.
Regaining international credibility has gone through surveys. But only zero miles on a long road.
Climate will be the key to a new diplomacy
If over the past four years the government of Jair Bolsonaro has decided to refuse to recognize the climate problem and deliberately make room for deforestation, the price Brazil has paid has been high. State funds began to suspend investments in the country. In international forums and public opinion abroad, Brazil has come to be seen as part of the planet’s climate problem. A kind of “environmental criminal”.
As a result of losing confidence in Brazil’s deforestation, the country now threatens to target its exports in Europe with extra taxes.
Therefore, any new international involvement of Brazil will undergo a thorough scrutiny of its relationship with the environment, and the new government’s advisers are aware of this. However, just adopting a new discourse will not be enough. The world will demand tangible results for deforestation reduction from the new government each month.
Aware of this pressure, Lula made his first speech to indicate that the environmental issue was among his priorities. “Brazil is ready to continue its leading role in tackling the climate crisis, protecting all of our biomes, particularly the Amazon rainforest,” she said.
“In our government, we have succeeded in reducing deforestation in the Amazon by 80% by significantly reducing the emissions of gases that cause global warming. Now, we will fight for zero deforestation in the Amazon. Brazil and the planet need an Amazon to live,” he said.
Russia and War
The Brazilian government will also have to readjust its position regarding the war in Ukraine. Despite Bolsonaro’s dependence on Russian fertilizers and his presence on the international stage as a dialogue actor, Bolsonaro’s closeness to Vladimir Putin’s government and his persistent abstentions in UN resolutions have raised questions about Brazil’s true motivation.
Condemnation of an invasion, annexation of lands, and crimes against humanity cannot be due to geopolitical concerns or fertilizer runoff.
Human Rights and Security Council Reform
A challenge for the new national diplomacy will be to reassert a stance to advocate multilateralism and UN reforms. In 2023, Brazil will continue with its seats in the Security Council and the entity’s Human Rights Council. But the hope is that the option now is participation focused on strengthening institutions.
“With the inclusion of more countries in the UN Security Council and the end of the veto power that undermines the balance between countries, we will fight again for a new global governance,” said Lula.
In the field of human rights, the last four years have been marked by an alliance with the far right around the world to overturn some of the main consensus built over the past 30 years. Brazil, along with Hungary and other countries, shocked the international community by vetoing or creating problems for the adoption of resolutions advocating issues such as gender equality.
Internally, the government has dismantled mechanisms against torture and narrowed the space for civil society participation. Also, the refusal to acknowledge that Brazil suffered a military coup in 1964 undermined the country’s ability to talk about democracy and human rights.
Part of the search for a new addition will include reaffirming Brazil’s commitment to the pillars of the international system, including its commitment to reducing hunger, rebuilding Funai, and an open agenda to support girls and women’s rights.
However, the international community will once again demand real changes in the protection of indigenous peoples, Afro-Brazilians and the LGBT community, in addition to transforming patterns of police violence.
Relations with the USA
Bolsonaro attributed his foreign policy to his alliance with Donald Trump and bet that the American would follow the tradition of American presidents and win a second term. When she became the widow of the Republican, she had to reconsider some of her alliances and strategies, opening a period of directionless, chaotic and unconvincing diplomacy.
The new Brazilian government will therefore have to re-establish solid and independent relations with the American government. One who ceases to surrender, but is able to maintain a dialogue on issues of mutual interest.
Chinese
The management of relations with China during the first two years of Bolsonaro’s government was marked by friction and a diplomatic crisis that served American and ideological interests. The relationship only took a new turn after the presidency was forced to change the tone under pressure from agribusiness.
China, Brazil’s largest trading partner, will have to be seen as a strategic actor for the future of all sectors of the country. However, as in the case of America, the country’s mature inclusion on the international stage will require the ability to disagree, challenge human rights abuses, and seek a balanced relationship.
Mercosur – Europe
After 20 years of negotiations, the Brazilian government closed the trade agreement between Mercosur and the European Union in 2019. However, ratification of the agreement never materialized, in the face of European governments that began to condition the agreement on environmental commitments on behalf of Brazil.
Despite various attempts, Bolsonaro was never invited on a state tour to the main European countries and burned key bridges of dialogue with Spain, France and Germany.
For the new Brazilian government, accepting the deal as it stands could open a new page for the strategic relationship between Brazil and Europe. But at a low level for Brazilian exporters, because the conditions Bolsonaro accepted were below the agribusiness targets.
But if Brazil chooses to restart negotiations, it will also have to admit that the Europeans will seek to expand the environmental requirements in the agreement.
While making his first speech, Lula gave signs that he could embark on a new path. We want fairer international trade, we want to continue our partnerships with the United States and the European Union in new bases, we are not interested in trade agreements that doom our country to the eternal role of exporter of commodities and raw materials.
“We will reindustrialize Brazil, invest in a green and digital economy, support the creativity of our businessmen and entrepreneurs, and also want to export intelligence and knowledge,” he said.
Whatever the fate of the commercial part of the agreement, the new Brazilian diplomacy needs to re-establish relations with an important pole of power in the world, and these relations can only serve as a basis for an alternative to a non-conflict multipolar world. between the Americans and the Chinese.
source: Noticias
