Confirmed the victory of Lula da Silva In the ballot on Sunday 31 October, the leader of the Workers’ Party (PT) is ready to assume the presidency of Brazil for the third time in a scenario very different to which he lived in his two previous terms, with an economy far from its best times and with a Congress where Bolsonarism will continue to have a great influence.

The composition of the new Brazilian Congress that emerged after the first round on 2 October sees Jair Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party (PL) as main strength in both chamberswhich guarantees that Lula will have to use her negotiating skills to carry out her projects.

The PL will have the largest seat in the House since 1998, with 99 of the 513 seats (23 more than today). With PPs and Republicans, parties that support Bolsonaro, almost 190 deputies would add. In the 81-seat Senate, the PL has increased from six seats to 13 and in total right-wing parties will control 53%.

A “conservative” Congress.

“It’s a Conservative and Liberal Congress“congratulated the current Speaker of the House, Arthur Lira (PP), who supported Bolsonaro for the second round.

Bolsonarism also managed to gain a foothold in numerous governorates, maintaining it key strongholds such as San Pablo.

In Sunday’s ballot, Tarcisio de Freitas (PL) defeated the PT candidate, Fernando Haddad, to become governor of the most populous state in Brazil, with 46 million inhabitants and generator of a third of the country’s wealth.

With the triumph of Freitas and the defeat of Bolsonaro, São Paulo could become the natural stronghold of Bolsonist power, under the leadership of deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro, son of the president. In the states of Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro, the most important after São Paulo, their governors, Romeu Zema and Claudio Castro, both Bolsonarians, were re-elected on 2 October.

Congress, with figures hostile to Lula

For Oliver Stuenkel, professor of international relations at the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), the presence of marked detractors of Lula, such as deputy Bolsonaro or the elected senator and former judge Sergio Moro, who sentenced Lula in the Lava Jato case, “they will try to complicate your life” to the president-elect.

“Congress will be quite hostile to the growth of the rightespecially the far right, more radical “, explains Stuenkel, assuring that the appeals for political dismissal could arise” from the first moment “.

Marco Antonio Teixeira, political scientist of the Getulio Vargas Foundation, assured that Lula will have to work to expand the “legitimacy” of the government by integrating sectors outside the Workers’ Party into his government.

Among them stands the third candidate with the most votes in the first round, the centrist senator Simone Tebet, who joined Lula’s electoral campaign and worked hard to win the PT candidate.

strong opposition

Adriano Laureno, of the consulting firm Prospectiva, said Bolsonaro’s result ended up as runner-up candidate best rated in Brazilian democratic history, predicts that Lula will have “strong” opposition and possibly “organized in the streets”.

Getting the allies to approve its reform agenda, such as tax hikes for the richest and new labor-friendly labor legislation, will be “more difficult,” agrees Sergio Praça, political scientist at the FGV.

But at the same time, analysts believe the president-elect could, as he did in his two previous administrations, build a left-wing coalition (about 120 deputies) with the center-right, key to governing Brazil.

The “Center”which brings together a handful of conservative but pragmatic parties, has dominated Brazilian politics and all presidents for decades they had to weave alliances to ruler.

“His ideology is much more malleable,” says Stuenkel.

According to some reports, the “Center” it now has more than 240 members of Congress, many of them it could tip the scales towards Lula. But that would come at a price: these parties often give their support in exchange for government posts or funds for their electoral fiefdoms.

And they are not a guarantee of anything, as happened with the former left-wing president Dilma Rousseff (2011-2016), abandoned by most of the “Centrao” during her impeachment trial.

For Carolina Botelho, a researcher in political communication and public opinion at the State University of Rio de Janeiro, with a Lula government, most of the right-wing groups will tend to seek dialogue.

“The strident and the radical (…) do not have an organized mass party exert pressure on the executivesays Botelho.

Clarín editorial staff with information from AFP and Télam

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