Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s victory in Brazil opens, promptly greeted by the White House a new stage in the name of pragmatism in relations with the United States, with environmental affinities but also differences with respect to China or Russia, analysts estimate.
Although diplomatic relations are inherently inscrutable, that between the United States and Brazil is still “pragmatic and a matter of state regardless of who is in power,” says Valentina Sader, associate director of the Council’s Adrienne Arsht Center for Latin America Atlantic, in Washington.
given that “very pragmatic and conciliatory character” Under Lula, the bilateral relationship will be “more predictable and stable” than far-right president Jair Bolsonaro, estimates researcher Isabelle C. Somma de Castro of the University of São Paulo.
Lula is likely to focus on fighting climate change.
What they see in Lula
“It would be an important way to deepen cooperation” with the government of US President Joe Biden, “and a point of potential leadership for both countries globally,” says Sader.
“If we have an idea of what his presidency in 2023 could be in light of his previous terms, Brazil will prioritize ties within the region and with the entire southern hemisphere, working closely with the United States, Europe, China “, says Sader.
As for multilateral organizations – he explains – it is likely that Lula will ask for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council and, in general, will seek the support of the United States to increase his representation in institutions, such as the Inter-American Bank of Development. Bank (IDB), the World Bank or the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
From Biden’s point of view, Lula is “the best alternative” Although both he and the Brazilian left “are not big fans of the United States (like the Latin American left in general),” says Carlos Gustavo Poggio, professor of political science at Berea College, Kentucky, United States.
“Having said that – he adds – I don’t expect bilateral relations to change much (…) unless there is some sort of institutional break, in which case the United States would distance itself from Brazil”.
With Lula there can be “greater affinity in relation to issues related to Biden’s agendasuch as the need for investment in infrastructure, attention to climate change, environmental conservation and confrontation with institutional racism “, says Brazilian Paulo Abrao, former executive secretary of the Inter-American Commission for Human Rights (IACHR).
On a commercial level, the consulted experts exclude significant variations.
I also agree that Lula will try cement relations with Chinaa country that Washington considers the main security challenge in the coming decades.
In the past, Lula has focused its foreign policy on strategic relations and China is Brazil’s main trading partner. But relations “would also be pragmatic,” Sader believes, who does not rule out greater cooperation with the Asian country in multilateral fora, such as the emerging economies of the BRICS and the G20.
On a personal level, the fact that Biden is a Democrat does not predetermine a good relationship.
It is worth remembering, emphasizes Somma de Castro, that the leader of the PT got along well with Republican President George W. Bush than with the Democrat Barack Obama.
clutches
And President Dilma Roussef, who succeeded Lula, he was intercepted when the Democrats were in powerwhich made the Workers’ Party (PT) “very suspicious” of them, he adds.
Migration could be another point of friction, as Lula could change or interrupt US flights that bring back irregular Brazilian migrants because “progressives see it as a humiliating action,” he explains.
The left front in the region is strengthened by Lula’s victory, but “this will not affect long-term relations” because “we have had waves of left and right and there have been no substantial changes and this is especially true in the case of Brazil. “, says Poggio.
However, according to Sader, could lead to “a possible misalignment with respect to” to relations with Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba.
“There may be stylistic differences between Lula and Biden in terms of the best strategies for dealing with autocratic-leaning governments in the region,” says Abrao, who insists that you can’t talk about just one left, but about “different currents of progressive governments”.
For Somma de Castro, Lula is more of a center-left and will be forced to focus “on internal issues, such as relaunching the economy and rebuilding social programs”.
If there were any changes from Brasilia’s approach to the war in Ukraine, “it would be minimal,” Sader predicts.
Brazil, which depends on Russian fertilizers, “He will continue to bet on peaceful negotiations to find a solution to the conflict through diplomatic channels “, he adds.
This runs counter to the interests of Washington, which wants some Latin American countries to raise their voices against Russia after the invasion of Ukraine.
In an interview with Time magazine this year, Lula stressed that Volodimir Zelensky “wanted war” and that the Ukrainian president is “as responsible for the war as (Russian Vladimir) Putin”. Lula also criticized Biden and the European Union for failing to do what is necessary to avoid conflict.
AFP agency
PB
Source: Clarin
