Last Sunday’s election was fierce, polarized and in many ways unique. It was an election with few winners and widened the chasm that separates our society from reconciliation.
Bolsonaro will leave power in many ways less than he entered. In fact, it only comes out big where, oddly enough, it’s undervalued: in ballot boxes. The current president cast a meaningful vote, and the Bolsonarista right elected its leader in Planalto and most of Brazil’s later leaders, despite losing control of some of the public machinery. Governors, lawmakers and senators, including several former Bolsonaro ministers, will oppose Lula in one of the most conservative congressional compositions in our history.
Lessons learned from abroad in similar situations suggest that Bolsonarism will continue to prevail in public debate. For example, if he follows in the footsteps of Trumpism, he will have taken over important institutional structures, hinder the rise of new cadres and leaderships among allies, continue to fuel political violence and manipulate the masses, while continuing to divide society and spread disinformation with more hatred, fear and lies.
In this context, Lula will also have to deal with difficulties that cannot be ignored. In addition to the strong opposition in the legislature, possible scouts organized by radical militants of the far-right, and daily patrols of digital militias, the incoming president will have to contend with a very different context from the one he finds. years ago, when he took on his first assignment.
1) We are a more conservative society and more hopeless about politics than we were twenty years ago. Lula knows he’s becoming president this time in part because of Bolsonaro’s massive rejection. At the same time, he will have to admit that the antipetismo is too loud to ignore.
2) The economic outlook is not the best. We do not have the commodities boom of the early 2000s and we are not enjoying the macroeconomic stability at that time. The country’s financial situation is very fragile. It will be difficult to attract investment and control government spending. It is worth remembering that Bolsonaro’s government seeking re-election promoted an irresponsible “goodness package” at the last minute, overspending and forcing this bill to be paid by the next government. take on debt. Lula will need to find ways to reconcile social justice with fiscal responsibility.
3) The instability in the international scenario is also not positive for the new government, which will have to continue to deal with the residual effects of the pandemic, inflation in developed countries and the war in Ukraine. All this will affect Brazil’s growth rate and ability to express itself.
4) Lula will need to negotiate and compromise to rule. He will need the support of the “broad front” he created during the campaign. Lula will have to find ways to surrender and please a wide variety of groups. It will need to moderate towards the center to survive politically and make room for dialogue with actors from the agribusiness, evangelical groups and the military, but in doing so it will also suffer from “friendly fire” and demands. from the far left, from their own parties and traditional allies.
5) In terms of public opinion, Lula will be the target of a “double standard”. Saying nonsense and making non-presidential decisions, Bolsonaro spent years being treated as “real” and “authentic”. Lula will not be of the same grace. On the contrary, your every move will be scrutinized and you will have unrealistic expectations. The result can be rapid disappointment and low popularity.
Lula has been very pragmatic since receiving the news of the victory. She has repeatedly said that the priority is to pacify the country and create a space for dialogue and coexistence between those who are different. The hurdles will be huge and let’s face it, we all know the “knots” that need to be untied, but the former president doesn’t need to be enthusiastic right now to acknowledge the importance of “back to normal”. democracy, to use a phrase from Warren G. Harding’s presidential election campaign in the United States 100 years ago.
source: Noticias
