Ahead of the presidential elections in Brazil, many feared that a tight result would be contested and result in a death sentence for Latin America’s largest democracy.
Yet the worst fears so far have been averted, despite former center-left president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s victory over incumbent right-wing president Jair Bolsonaro and persistent protests from some Bolsonaro supporters across the country.
The president’s allies immediately recognized Lula’s victory, the armed forces remained in their barracks, and the leaders of other countries offered their support to the leader of the Workers’ Party. Thus, they truncated the idea of something resembling the January 6, 2021 uprising in the United States Capitol, one of the great ghosts that were passing through Brazil these days.
“All of Bolsonaro’s relief valves were closed,” said Brian Winter, a Brazilian expert and president of the New York-based Council of the Americas.
Although Bolsonaro refused to congratulate Lula in general the country’s institutions seem to have resisted.
Bolsonaro released a video message on Wednesday calling for an end to his supporters’ protests. “I know you’re angry. I’m just as sad and upset as you are. But we have to stay calm,” he said. “The closure of routes in Brazil endangers people’s right to come and go,” he added.
The challenges of Lula da Silva
This leaves an even more worrying challenge: how will Lula, a 77-year-old former union leader, who returns to the post he left in 2010 after two terms, will join a deeply divided countrystraighten a faltering economy and meet the enormous expectations unleashed by its return.
One thing is clear: if there is anyone who can do it, it is the charismatic Lula, whose political skills are admired even by her detractors.
“This is what we need, someone who can not only address inequality, but also inspire our emotions and ideas,” said Marcelo Neri, director of the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s social policy center and former Minister of Strategic Affairs. during the Dilma administration. Rousseff.
In many ways, the conservative movement Bolsonaro helped spark – and himself – came out stronger after the election, Winter said. His allies were elected governors in several key states and the Liberal Party, to which he belongs, won a majority in Congress, which rIt reduces Lula’s ability to carry out her agenda after a decade of economic crisis that left millions of Brazilians hungrier than when Lula left office in 2010.
politics and religion
Additionally, Brazil’s demographics appear to favor Bolsonaro’s aggressive identity politics, including an anti-LGBTQ agenda and hostility towards environmentalists, earning him the nickname “Trump of the Tropics.”
The country’s own statistical institute predicts that the number of Brazilians who identify as evangelical Christians – who, according to pre-election polls, overwhelmingly favor Bolsonaro and lean to the right – will overtake Catholics within a decade.
Thousands of Bolsonaro supporters gathered Wednesday at a regional army barracks in Rio, asking for military intervention and keep it in power.
Others have appeared in military installations in São Paulo, Santa Catarina and in the capital Brasilia. Meanwhile, truckers maintained around 150 roadblocks across the country to protest Bolsonaro’s defeat, despite Federal Supreme Court orders for law enforcement to dismantle them.
At one of the truck driver’s checkpoints within the state of Sao Paulo, a car crashed into the crowd, leaving several injured, including children and police officers.
Ever since democracy was restored to the country after the military dictatorship (1964-1985), all Brazilian rulers have been guided, to a greater or lesser extent, by a common belief in strong state-owned societies, high taxes and energy redistribution of wealth.
At first Bolsonaro tried to have a more austere and business-friendly government, until the social devastation caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and the collapse of his chances of re-election led him to loosen control of public spending and emulate the policies he used to criticize.
unknown
How Lula will rule is less clear. conquered a close win with a lead of just 2 million votes after forming a broad coalition fundamentally united by the desire to defeat Bolsonaro.
And, thanks to the promise to leave a generous welfare program in place until 2023, will have a limited tax margin to spend on other priorities.
His running mate who belongs to another party, the former governor of São Paulo Geraldo Alckmin, was chosen to send a signal in favor of centrist and fiscally conservative policies which made Lula a popular figure on Wall Street during his early years in office. This week, Lula announced that the vice president-elect will lead her transition team.
However, on Sunday evening there were also some leftist supporters involved in a series of corruption scandals that engulfed Lula’s Workers’ Party and paved the way for Bolsonaro’s rise.
While Lula’s supporters have downplayed corruption issues – the Federal Supreme Court overturned the convictions that kept him behind bars for nearly two years – for many Brazilians he is a symbol of the culture of corruption that has long permeated politics. As such, a higher ethical standard is likely to be required of him in a country where nearly all governments have been accused of buying votes in Congress.
“This wasn’t just a fever dream of his opponents,” Winter said of the corruption allegations that had long plagued the PT.
the international front
Lula’s victory coincides with a series of center-left victories in South America, including those in Chile and Colombia, whose leaders admire the elected Brazilian leader.
During his first term in the Brazilian presidency, Lula spearheaded the so-called “pink tide” that promoted regional integration, rivaled US dominance, and put the rights of neglected minorities and indigenous groups at the heart of the agenda. politic.
During Bolsonaro’s presidency, Brazil largely avoided that leadership role, even though the size of its economy means that a return to the most influential group of countries is never far off.
Scott Hamilton, a former US diplomat, said Lula will have to make a difficult decision whether to use Brazil’s considerable influence to implement an ambitious foreign policy to tackle deep-seated problems, or simply use her star power on the world stage to support the home.
“Gonarding not to be Bolsonaro will get you a lot of positive attention alone,” said Hamilton, whose last post, until April, was that of consul general in Rio.
“The more ambitious path would involve trying to help resolve some of the most difficult political issues in which the region’s democratic governments are struggling or have become extinct,” he concluded.
Source: AP
CB
Source: Clarin
