BBC News Brasil 5 reasons Russia’s nuclear strike is unlikely

I feel like I’m watching a scene from a James Bond movie.

Somewhere near Moscow, the President of Russia is asked on stage about the Apocalypse. The moderator reminds Putin that he once predicted that after a nuclear war the Russians would go to heaven.

“We’re in no rush to get there, are we?” the moderator asks hopefully.

There is a long, uncomfortable pause. Seven seconds of silence.

“Your silence worries me,” says the moderator.

“That was the idea,” Putin replies with a laugh.

Forgive me for not laughing. This is not a Hollywood blockbuster with a guaranteed happy ending. The events of the past eight months are a real-life drama that has brought indescribable pain to Ukraine, and many believe the world has never been closer to nuclear conflict since the Cuban Missile Crisis 60 years ago.

So, what’s in the script from now on?

It all depends on the answer to the question: How far does Vladimir Putin want to go to secure victory or prevent defeat in Ukraine?

If you reread his speech to the nation on February 24 – after he ordered the invasion of Ukraine – you can conclude that he will do whatever it takes:

“And now, a few important words for those who want to spy on what’s going on – very important -. Those who try to get in our way or pose a threat to our country and our people should know this: Russia’s reaction. It will be instantaneous and will have consequences you have never experienced in history.”

Outside of Russia, the phrase “unprecedented results in history” has been widely interpreted as a clear nuclear threat. And the teasing continued in the months that followed.

In April, President Putin threatened a “lightning response.” [se] A foreigner trying to intervene and pose a strategic threat to Russia. We have all the weapons we need for that.” In September, he added his notorious sentence: “This is not a bluff.”

At the Valdai Discussion Club last week (the scene of that long and worrying hiatus I mentioned earlier), Putin was sending mixed signals. He denied any intention to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

“We don’t need it,” he said. “It has no political or military meaning.”

But behind the scenes of Talk Club, you couldn’t escape this threat.

Dmitry Suslov, a member of the Russian Defense and Foreign Policy Council, said: “There is a risk that Russia will use nuclear weapons. It is not against Ukraine, but against the West.”

“If a single American missile hits the Russian military infrastructure inside Russia, we will make a historic leap towards nuclear Armageddon. According to official Russian nuclear doctrine, Russia will launch a strategic nuclear strike against the United States and all NATO countries as soon as possible. “We are witnessing missiles being launched against our land, no matter how armed. Then the whole planet will die.”

An alarmist rhetoric? No doubt.

Is it a realistic scenario? I’m not so sure.

Presidential pauses (possibly for dramatic effect) and recent Russian rhetoric aside, I see it as highly unlikely that the Kremlin is currently planning a nuclear escalation in the Ukrainian war.

Especially when you consider the following five reasons:

1 – midterm elections in the USA

With the US midterm elections approaching, the Kremlin knows the GOP has a chance to take control of Congress.

Earlier this month, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy warned that Republicans would not issue a “blank check” to Ukraine if they regained a majority in the House.

That would sound like music to Putin’s ears. While it is unclear whether US aid to Ukraine will be significantly affected by a Republican victory, the Kremlin will embrace the possibility of reducing US military aid to Kiev.

2 – Winter in Europe

It seems that Putin calculates that with Russia’s energy supply to Europe drastically reduced, a cold winter will exacerbate Europe’s energy and cost-of-living crises and force Western governments to come to an agreement with the Kremlin: the exchange of Russian energy.

But so far, Europe seems better prepared for winter than Moscow expected.

October was milder than usual and there was an increase in the supply of liquefied natural gas – as a result, gas reserves were replenished and gas prices fell in Europe.

But if temperatures also drop, the pressure can increase. Especially in Ukraine, where the Russian military has attacked the country’s energy infrastructure.

3 – Mobilization

In recent days, Vladimir Putin has taken steps to mobilize the entire Russian economy and industry for the needs of “special military operations”.

In many ways, the entire country seems to be on the path to war in the long run. Perhaps a sign that the Kremlin is now preparing for a protracted war in Ukraine.

4 – Mutually guaranteed destruction

A creation of the Cold War that still holds true today: the assumption that if one side builds nuclear weapons, the other side will respond in the same way and everyone will die. Nuclear war has no winners. Vladimir Putin knows this.

All this is based on the premise that it would be logical to assume that the Ukrainian war would not have a nuclear component.

There is only one problem. Logic disappeared from here on February 24. And wars don’t necessarily develop logically.

If there’s one thing the Cuban Missile Crisis has taught the world, it’s that the planet suddenly finds itself on the brink of destruction as a result of miscalculations and miscommunications.

Which brings me to the last reason…

5 – Errors

President Putin’s “special operations” did not go according to plan. What should have taken days—weeks at the most—had been going on for months. While the Kremlin completely underestimates the scale of Ukrainian resistance, it seems to misjudge Western support for Kiev and the tsunami of international sanctions Russia will face.

And despite initially promising that only “professional soldiers” would enter the war, Putin eventually declared a “partial mobilization” of reservists. Also, in recent weeks, as a result of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, Russian troops have lost part of their occupied territory.

But one thing Vladimir Putin rarely admits to is making mistakes. For now, he seems determined to continue this war and find something he can call victory.

– This text was published in: https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/internacional-63484859