The November 8 elections in the United States will have a major impact on the course of the nation as well as the fate of the individual in the White House and the ruling party.
Current president Joe Biden is not at the polls – midterm elections determine who will control state legislatures and governor’s offices, as well as Congress. But the elections will give voters an opportunity to indirectly express their views on the presidency and the current course of the country.
As the US economy struggles and voters worry about violence and visa-free immigration, the decision could be harsh for the current president. Also, the outcome will affect the playing field of the 2024 presidential campaign, and in particular Donald Trump’s chances of being re-elected.
Here are five reasons why these elections are so important:
1. Abortion rights or restrictions
Congress reformulation can directly affect the daily lives of citizens across the country. Abortion is a clear example.
In June, the Supreme Court overturned constitutionally protected abortion rights. Both parties have proposed new national laws should they gain control of Congress in these elections.
While Democrats promised to support women’s abortion rights, Republicans proposed a nationwide ban on abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy.
At the state level, it could mean more restrictions on abortion, following local disagreements with key governors and traditional political battlegrounds like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
Who gains control of Congress and who gains power in the states will affect the focus of other policies besides abortion.
If Republicans have more power, expect immigration, religious rights, and the fight against violent crime to be a priority.
For Democrats, the environment, health, suffrage and gun control will remain high on the agenda.
2. The Republicans’ Turn to Investigate Democrats
But by-elections will have an impact far beyond public policy circles.
Controlling Congress means having the power to initiate investigative committees.
For two years, Democrats limited the amount of scrutiny the White House faced, making the January 6 attack on the US Capitol in 2021 its main focus.
They interviewed hundreds of people and held first-class hearings about what happened that day to find out what the Trump White House knew in advance and how it responded. They are expected to issue a report before the end of the year.
But all that is about to change. Republicans, already awaiting control of the House of Representatives, say they will close the committee on January 6 and begin a hearing about Joe Biden’s son Hunter’s trade ties to China.
They also want to look at the immigration policies of the Biden administration, the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, and the origins of the coronavirus pandemic in China.
If Republicans also take control of the US Senate, the process of approving Biden’s elect to work in federal courts and major government agencies is expected to stall.
3. The future of Joe Biden
By-elections are typically considered a referendum on the first two years of a presidential term – the ruling party usually takes a beating.
Biden’s approval ratings have been bad for over a year.
And high inflation and concerns about the economy resurfaced in the final part of the campaign, leaving the Democrats in a tough battle to keep both houses of Congress.
In his first two years as president, Biden passed new laws on climate change, gun control, investment in infrastructure and child poverty, despite a narrow majority in Congress.
However, if one of these chambers passes to the Republicans, they will have the power to prevent Democratic bills from passing through Congress, creating a stalemate.
A bad night for Democrats will quickly be interpreted as a sign of Biden’s political weakness and could renew calls for another Democrat to leave as Biden’s 2024 presidential campaign season begins.
But the president and his vice-presidents insist he will apply for re-election – and it has only happened once in the modern political era to overthrow an incumbent president in a primary election (when candidates from the same party compete for the nomination).
4. Will Trump run for president again?
Unlike presidents who have been defeated recently, Trump has not kept politics quiet.
He still seems interested in returning to the White House in 2024 – and the midterm elections could raise or lower his hopes. While he’s not at the ballot box, the dozens of candidates he chooses run high-profile races across the United States.
The former president has succeeded in elevating some Senate candidates to more traditional Republican politicians, including former football player Herschel Walker in Georgia, television doctor Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, and populist writer JD Vance in Ohio, despite objections from former Republican leaders.
If they win, it could prove that his political instincts are sharp and that his conservative policies have a national appeal. But if Republicans fail in Congress, and Trump’s carefully selected stand-alone candidates fail, the former president can be blamed.
Such an outcome would raise the hopes of Trump’s opponents within the party. Both Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Texas Governor Greg Abbott are running for reelection in November, and they can use the results as a springboard for their own campaigns to win the Republican nomination in 2024.
5. The future of ‘election deniers’
The 2022 midterm elections will be the first federal election since the attack on the US Capitol on January 6, when Trump supporters tried to block confirmation of Joe Biden’s electoral victory.
Far from being punished by turmoil, Trump continued to question the results of this election and actively supported Republican candidates who said Trump’s victory was stolen from them.
Many of these candidates, such as the candidates for secretary of state Mark Finchem in Arizona and Jim Marchant in Nevada and the gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania, are vying for positions in which they will have at least some control over their state’s electoral systems prior to the election. presidency 2024.
These politicians, if elected, may refuse to approve their state’s election results in a near election.
They can also sue locals based on allegations of electoral corruption, or pass new rules and regulations that restrict certain voting methods by mail or ballot box.
In 2020, under Trump’s pressure to reverse some results, Republican office holders in many states refused to bow to Trump’s demands.
Two years from now, the outcome of such challenges could be quite different if a similarly contested election were held.
source: Noticias
