The final polls ahead of the midterm elections in the United States have now been released and may help answer the question on everyone’s mind: Who will win this Tuesday’s midterm elections (8/11) – Democrats or republicans?
The signs are that the GOP is about to regain control of the House of Representatives for the first time in four years.
The Senate race is too tight to make a guess anyway. There are more roads to a Republican victory than Democrats, who have had a narrow majority for the past two years.
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Figuring out how this could play out in both legislatures is a matter of math.
In the 435-seat House of Representatives, Republicans could win about 212 seats, according to the Cook Political Report, which combines various data to assess possible scenarios. They would only need to win six of the 35 most competitive games to win the majority.
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Ten of these seats have already been held by Republicans, so victory in this scenario would not require the removal of a single Democrat. He would have made a major mistake in the polls for the Democrats to maintain their dominance in the House. Currently, most polls show Republicans will win 20 to 30 seats, which should give them a comfortable majority.
The Senate is a little simpler to understand. Only 35 of the house’s 100 seats are open this year, and there are few fierce competitions.
Democrats are fighting to retain seats in Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and New Hampshire; and Republicans in Ohio and Pennsylvania. According to most surveys, all these disagreements are within or near the margin of error. The Republicans’ one-seat win allows them to win a majority at home.
There are more scenarios that predict the defeat of the Democrats in the Senate. That gives Republicans an edge in Tuesday’s election, albeit by narrow margins. However, the Senate and the House do not always follow the same path. In 2018, Democrats turned against Republicans in the House of Representatives but lost seats in the Senate.
In short, it seems likely that Republicans will gain control of at least one of the houses of Congress.
After two years of Democratic control in both legislatures, the power dynamics in Washington are about to change. This will have powerful ramifications for American politics over the next two years.
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– This text was published at https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/internacional-63551478.
source: Noticias
