Joe Biden and Donald Trump have been the protagonists of an intense election campaign that has once again highlighted the current division in the United States, even if their names are not on the ballot papers.
The country is holding its midterm elections this Tuesday (11/08), and the outcome is expected to have a major impact on the remaining two years of the Biden administration (and beyond).
In the USA, the House of Representatives and part of the Senate are renewed every two years: in some cases the voting coincides with the presidential election, in others it takes place in the middle of the presidential term, as it is now, and therefore has this Name.
That’s why many see this election as a referendum on the incumbent president. And it’s very common for the party occupying the White House to tend to lose seats in the process.
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Biden’s Democratic Party won a House majority and Senate tie in the 2020 election; that’s practically the majority, because the tiebreaker vote goes to Vice President Kamala Harris.
This allowed Biden to pass some of the bills on his ambitious legislative agenda.
It’s a key moment for Republicans: It will be the first election since Trump left the White House, and thus will be the best indicator for the former president to decide whether to run for president in 2024.
Also, if the Republicans take control of both Houses, they could effectively put the brakes on Biden’s agenda.
They can also check with congressional investigative committees, which will make it possible to close the ongoing investigation into the US Capitol raid on January 6, 2021, although the commission’s work is expected to be completed later this year.
The BBC’s Washington policy correspondent, Anthony Zurcher, shared some of the points he believes will be key in this election.
1. Abortion rights or restrictions
Changing the composition of Congress would have a direct impact on the lives of Americans. A good example is the abortion situation.
In June, the Supreme Court overturned the ruling in the Roe v Wade case, which provides constitutional protection for abortion in the country.
Both parties already have bills that they plan to implement at the federal level if they gain control of Congress in November.
Democrats have pledged to defend women’s right to abortion, while Republicans are proposing a federal ban on abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy.
At the state level, the outcome of local legislative and governorship disputes in key states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan could mean that these places impose greater restrictions on abortion.
But any party that gains control of Congress and power in the states will have the potential to influence policy focus beyond abortion.
If the Republicans win, the expectation is that immigration, religious rights and crime will become a priority.
By contrast, key issues for Democrats are the environment, health care, voting rights and gun control.
2. Trump’s return
Image: EPA
Unlike former presidents who lost US election races, Trump did not quietly withdraw from politics.
It seems he still has some interest in returning to the White House in 2024, and the midterm elections could strengthen his position or thwart his expectations.
Despite not appearing as a candidate on the ballot, Trump has political support for dozens of Republican candidates.
Despite objections from some party leaders, the former president has managed to push some Senate candidates, including former football player Herschel Walker (Georgia), TV star doctor Mehmet Oz (Pennsylvania), and populist writer JD Vance (Ohio). traditional Republicans in the primary elections.
If these candidates win, it could be argued that Trump’s political instincts are keen and his brand of conservative politics has a national appeal.
But if Republicans fall short in Congress and Trump’s unconventional nominations fail, the former president can be blamed.
Such an outcome would raise the hopes of Trump’s presidential opponents within the party.
Both Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Texas Governor Greg Abbott are running for reelection in November, and they can use the results of those races as a springboard for their own campaigns to win the 2024 Republican nomination.
3. The future of Joe Biden
By-elections are typically viewed as referendums of the first two years of a presidential term; and therefore, historically, the ruling party is defeated.
Image: REUTERS
Biden’s approval ratings have been low for over a year.
While Democrats appear to have rebounded somewhat, rising inflation and concerns about the economy pose a major challenge for the ruling party to retain control of both houses of Congress.
In his first two years as president, Biden, despite a small majority in Congress, was able to pass new laws on issues like climate change, gun control, infrastructure investments and child poverty.
However, if control of both houses passes to the Republican Party, it will have the power to prevent Congress from passing Democratic bills, and the result will be a legislative stalemate.
A negative result for Democrats could also be interpreted as a sign of the president’s continued political weakness – and could rekindle calls to leave the way open for another Democratic candidate as Biden’s 2024 presidential campaign begins.
However, the president and his advisers insist that they will run for reelection, and it has only been once in modern politics that an incumbent president’s party has lost its candidacy in the primary elections.
4. What about those who do not recognize the 2020 election?
Image: REUTERS
The 2022 midterm elections will be the first federal election since the January 6, 2021 invasion of the US Capitol, when Trump supporters tried to prevent congressmen from confirming Joe Biden’s victory at the polls.
Far from allaying anger in the wake of the riots, Trump insisted on questioning the election results and actively supported Republican candidates who claimed victory was stolen from them.
Most of these candidates, such as Mark Finchem (Arizona) and Jim Marchant (Nevada) running for secretary of state, and Doug Mastriano (Pennsylvania) running for governor, have control over at least some systems. Election campaigns in their States considering the 2024 presidential election.
These politicians, if elected, may refuse to approve election results in their state if the country has a tight vote for president.
They may also sue certain counties for alleged electoral corruption or enact new rules and regulations to restrict certain voting methods, such as postal voting.
In the 2020 election, several Republican state officials refused to bow to pressure from Trump to reverse the results elsewhere.
If in two years there is an election as fierce as in 2020, the response to such a challenge could be quite different.
– This text was published at https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/internacional-63542370.
source: Noticias
