Brazil’s president-elect, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, began the most complicated chapter of his upcoming government this Tuesday. It consists of fabric of alliances in Congress, an environment that is not necessarily hostile but not easy in the present circumstances.
The PT leader has allies from center to center rightbut it needs to broaden that base with the support of formations that have a strong conservative bias.
The liberal PSD, which participated in the overthrow of the last PT president, Dilma Rousseff, and Uniao Brasil, another right-wing party, are on the president’s agenda. It already has the backing of the conservative MDB, whose leader, Simone Tebet, an anti-abortion senator, has become a staunch ally of Lula’s second-round candidacy.
With these approvals, its strength would grow from 123 seats to around 265 in the lower house.
Each step of these fabrics must be completed concessionyes, analysts say. Congress is used to negotiating back and forth. For example, the head of deputies, Arthur Lira, of the right-wing progressive conservative party, will seek the approval of the new president to continue in his position, a difficult task after Lula criticizes him for treating him as an “emperor”.
challenges
There are other challenges to be faced. Lula intends to remove or modify the law that places a limit on public spending, in order to fill the fiscal gap left by the outgoing government of Jair Bolsonaro.
The point that includes social assistance of $ 120 for the poorest sectors alone will bring about $ 14 billion. But such progress requires an important legion of supporters.
According to observers, it will also be complex if the president-elect tries to undo a serious concession Bolsonaro made to Congress to keep him on his side. This is the “secret chapter” of the budget, a device that allows lawmakers to allocate federal resources, a benefit that Parliament intends to keep in the new administration.
Lula’s strength will also depend on who she appoints at the head of the Economy. It is unlikely that he will accept the suggestion of the more traditional sectors of his party that they want him to elect Fernando Haddad, the former losing candidate for governor of São Paulo. Among the names mentioned are the liberals Persio Arida, Henrique Meirelles or the more lukewarm heterodox Alexandre Padilha, who had already announced the need for an adjustment before the first round. His conservative vice president, Geraldo Alckmin, is also mentioned.
Lula needs the support of the business world and banks to strengthen his negotiating capacity, which will invariably shift to the center-right, as has happened in his two governments, with the liberal economies.
The problem for the future will be the urgency to make ends meet in the budget that will be revised. Almost $ 70 billion is needed to resolve the deficits.
Mindful of the adjustment that this operation implies, the PT leader ordered that, before taking office, it was established that basic salaries were calculated above inflation, which today is very low in the country, and also guarantees payments from the Aid Brazil assistance program which will again be called Bolsa Familia. A way to deactivate the social bomb and avoid pressure at the beginning of his government.
Source: agencies
Source: Clarin
