Hours after the first polls closed, many key disagreements in the US midterm elections have yet to be settled, and control of the Senate, in particular, remains.
Opinion polls conducted on election day suggested that most of the races would be competitive and it could take some time before the results come out. In an election where many assumptions seemed questionable, these predictions proved correct.
It was a night of good news for the Republicans, as predicted, but their expectations that a tsunami would lead them to victory in dozens of races have so far not materialized. They’ve already lost a Senate seat in Pennsylvania and will have to surrender two of the three states – Nevada, Arizona and Georgia – to take control of the House.
The following are some of the main findings so far.
1. Republicans go to victory in the House
Even as Democrats win some tough races, Republicans seem to be on track for a majority in the House of Representatives. But the question is how large this majority will be.
Thanks to the surprisingly strong performance in 2020, the Republicans were just a few seats away from the majority. And they started these elections off to an advantageous start, after successfully redrawing congressional district boundaries in conservative states on the electoral map.
By any form of majority, Republicans will be able to stall the Democratic legislative agenda and launch an investigation into the Biden administration. This is a win in every way.
But if the margin is tight, Republicans will need incredible tactical and strategic skills to hold their party together in key votes.
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2. Florida Re-elected Republican Ron DeSantis
Four years ago, Ron DeSantis was elected governor of Florida by a 1% margin over his rival, Democrat Andrew Gillum. He won after four years of conservative rule where he relied on controversial cultural issues such as transgender rights and “critical racial theory”, protesting the restrictions of the covid-19 pandemic, and becoming a reference in conservative media. re-election by a comfortable margin.
How he does this is particularly interesting.
He lost 20% in the Miami-Dade County Democratic stronghold in 2018. This year, he is on the verge of becoming the first Republican gubernatorial candidate to win this Hispanic-majority district since Jeb Bush in 2002. It can even do so with a double-digit percentage.
DeSantis’ move to redraw the state’s district lines in a way that heavily favored the Republican candidates also paid national dividends. Republicans will have at least two of the five seats they need to take control of the House of Representatives.
These achievements would go a long way toward providing the governor of Florida with a springboard to launch a prospective presidential campaign, if he so wishes.
As if to underline this, the crowd at DeSantis’ victory rally on Tuesday night chanted “two more years”—admittedly unspoken that if he decided to run for president, he would have to resign from the governorship in the middle of four years. term.
If DeSantis wants to become the party’s 2024 presidential nominee, he may have to face his state’s most famous Republican, former President Donald Trump.
3. Confusing night for Trump
Donald Trump was not at the ballot box, but he still cast a shadow over them. Earlier in the evening, the former president made a short speech from his home in Mar-a-Lago, expecting a crushing victory for the candidates he supported.
But the reality is more complex. In high-profile races where he favors candidates who beat the more traditional Republican options, the candidates he chose seem to have been less successful.
TV star doctor Mehmet Oz lost the Senate race in Pennsylvania; former football player Herschel Walker looks close to the second round in Georgia; businessman Blake Masters is behind in Arizona. In Ohio, only populist writer JD Vance scored a clear victory, albeit by a narrower margin than expected.
Republicans will question Trump’s political instincts after Tuesday night. And if he launches a new presidential bid next week, he’ll be a little hesitant.
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4. Disappointment for the Democratic Stars
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In 2018, Texas’ Beto O’Rourke and Georgia’s Stacey Abrams lost their state races, but won Democratic hearts by narrow margins of their defeats. Their ability to raise millions of dollars in campaign funds and lay impressive foundations has led many on the American left to see them as the future of the party.
Given the high expectations of their supporters, both are vying for governor again in their states this year. But they were not selected.
Abrams, who was narrowly beaten by Republican Matt Kemp four years ago, will now be far behind. O’Rourke lost to Republican Governor Greg Abbott by a larger margin than he lost to Senator Ted Cruz four years ago.
Democrats will need to find new stars.
– This text was published at https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/internacional-63566679.
source: Noticias
