Earlier this week, in front of a crowd of supporters in Ohio, former US President Donald Trump made a promise: a “big announcement” on November 15.
The date was believed to be exactly one week after the predicted “red tide” of Republican victories in the midterm elections, which many observers interpreted as a litmus test of its effects on the party.
But the wave broke like a ripple. Trump’s announcement, likely to promote his name for the 2024 presidential race, is expected to come after an election in which most of the candidates he supports underperformed, deepening questions about the viability of the “Make America Great” brand. “As a permanent fixture of US conservatism.
Perhaps most worrying for the former president was the resounding success in the polls of Florida governor and potential 2024 rival Ron DeSantis, who won re-election with significant advances in all walks of life, including women and Latinos, and his tensions with Trump. climbed.
So far, how has mid-election night been for Trump, and what does the result have to mean for his political future?
All eyes on Ron DeSantis
As Republican candidates across the country face unexpectedly close races, DeSantis, 44, won a landslide victory of nearly 20 points over Democratic rival Charlie Crist, including a clear majority among Latino voters.
Four years ago, by comparison, he won the Florida governorship by less than half a percentage point.
The victory will further fuel speculation of a possible presidential race in 2024 with the presence of this politician, dubbed “Trump the Essence” or “Trump 2.0” by American analysts.
At the victory party in Tampa on Tuesday night (11/8), supporters shouted, “Two more years!” – With explicit reference to his desire to leave Florida in 2024 to run for the White House.
Among those who now see DeSantis as a stronger candidate for the White House than Trump is Mike Cernovich, a right-wing commentator described by Politico as a “tireless Trump supporter”.
Cernovich tweeted late Tuesday, “Trump has no chance overall in 2024. After tonight, that’s out of the question.” “DeSantis in 2024 or admit total defeat”.
The possibility of acquiring DeSantis within two years hasn’t gone unnoticed by Trump, who has warned that DeSantis “could take a lot of damage” and reveal “things that wouldn’t be very flattering about him”.
Patrick Ruffini, a Republican researcher and strategist, described Trump as a “wounded animal” in an interview with the BBC.
Also on Twitter, this Wednesday morning, former Trump spokesperson and Gettr CEO Jason Miller appeared to defend the former boss in the face of the results.
“As for my former boss, President Trump, he is still the leader of the GOP, and there were many positive signs last night in Arizona, Wisconsin and Georgia, the three states he should have won in 2024.”
Trump’s Approval Package – And Its Controversial Consequences
Ahead of the midterm elections, Trump endorsed dozens of Congressional candidates, as well as others running for governors and state representatives.
While the final results of the election are still uncertain – and may remain uncertain for a while – it’s becoming increasingly clear that Trump’s results are mixed at best.
For example, only one of the prominent Senate candidates he supported – Ohio Republican JD Vance – won a clear victory, defeating Democratic Representative Tim Ryan.
Other candidates Trump backed have lost, including Pennsylvania Senate candidate Mehmet Oz and Michigan gubernatorial candidate Tudor Nixon, with the results of many other races yet to be collected.
“I called John Fetterman this morning and congratulated him. My best wishes to him and his family, both personally and as our next United States Senator. It was my life’s honor to campaign in our region and I will take it with me. The memories and the people I met,” said Oz. He said he admitted defeat, without reference to any electoral fraud, as is customary among Trumpists.
John Hudak, a senior fellow at the Washington DC-based Brookings Institution, said ahead of the election that the defeats of Trump-backed candidates “could raise doubts about his political acumen” among potential supporters or undecided voters.
So far, Trump has denied that he can be held responsible for his candidates’ defeats. The former president praised a “big night” for his nominees on the Truth Social network, boasting 174 title wins compared to just 9 losses.
He also said on election night that he should “take all the credit” for his victories and “not be blamed” for his defeats.
Still, some have started blaming Trump for the results, in a process that probably won’t end here.
With low popularity and inflation of about 8% per year, far from the 2% target, Joe Biden’s government had already expected to lose control of both the House and Senate in the midterm elections.
Historically, the president is punished by voters in this election – this has happened in 36 of the 39 by-elections.
However, the Republicans’ margin of victory in the House turned out to be much weaker than expected. In the Senate, Democrats are likely to hold a narrow majority.
Is it a good side?
Trump may still have some reason to be happy with Tuesday’s results.
Most notable of these is the fact that a Republican-controlled House of Representatives – the most likely outcome – could dissolve the committee investigating the January 6, 2021 riot, which has long sought to link Trump with the Capitol occupation.
The committee recently issued a legal subpoena ordering Trump to testify by November 14, the day before his “big announcement.”
“It will likely be eliminated,” said Grant Reeher, a professor of political science at Syracuse University, referring to the investigative committee.
Additionally, the election has elected dozens of Biden victory deniers to seats in Congress or states in the 2020 election; This means that Trump can count on a key bloc of political allies who believe – or say they believe – that he is right. winner of the previous presidential election.
Polls also show that Trump remains popular with a large segment of the Republican voter base; It’s a reality that any potential candidate – whether DeSantis or another high-profile Republican – will have to face if they hope to replace him as the party’s favorite candidate for House. White.
“Anyone who wants to take Trump’s place at the top of the Republican Party cannot claim that Trump was not there. Trump is a huge personality and makes every race a battle of personalities,” wrote David Frum, executive editor of The Atlantic. former President George W. Bush.
“Refusing to participate in the game is not an option because it will play whether you like it or not. There is no choice but to play.”
*with Mariana Sanches from Washington
– This text was published at https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/internacional-63576192.
source: Noticias
